A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, agreed around April 7 amid the broader US-Israel-Iran war that began with February airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei, faces expiration next week as Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon—deemed outside the truce—prompt Iranian retaliation threats. Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran on April 16 to advance mediation, following stalled Islamabad talks, while the US enforces a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy flows. Diplomatic efforts intensify with Trump signaling potential deals, but additional US troops and warships en route heighten escalation risks ahead of renewed negotiations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,081,390 交易量
2026-06-30
4月7日
87%
4月15日
86%
4月30日
89%
5月15日
92%
6月30日
96%
12月31日
98%
$42,081,390 交易量
4月7日
$15,174,324 交易量
87%
4月15日
$8,961,893 交易量
86%
4月30日
$3,832,151 交易量
89%
5月15日
$3,409,756 交易量
92%
6月30日
$2,833,385 交易量
96%
12月31日
$2,710,834 交易量
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, agreed around April 7 amid the broader US-Israel-Iran war that began with February airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei, faces expiration next week as Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon—deemed outside the truce—prompt Iranian retaliation threats. Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran on April 16 to advance mediation, following stalled Islamabad talks, while the US enforces a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy flows. Diplomatic efforts intensify with Trump signaling potential deals, but additional US troops and warships en route heighten escalation risks ahead of renewed negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市场开放时间： Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
交易量
$42,081,390结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, agreed around April 7 amid the broader US-Israel-Iran war that began with February airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei, faces expiration next week as Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon—deemed outside the truce—prompt Iranian retaliation threats. Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran on April 16 to advance mediation, following stalled Islamabad talks, while the US enforces a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy flows. Diplomatic efforts intensify with Trump signaling potential deals, but additional US troops and warships en route heighten escalation risks ahead of renewed negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$42,081,390结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week US-Iran ceasefire, agreed around April 7 amid the broader US-Israel-Iran war that began with February airstrikes assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei, faces expiration next week as Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon—deemed outside the truce—prompt Iranian retaliation threats. Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran on April 16 to advance mediation, following stalled Islamabad talks, while the US enforces a naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy flows. Diplomatic efforts intensify with Trump signaling potential deals, but additional US troops and warships en route heighten escalation risks ahead of renewed negotiations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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