The US-Israel-Iran conflict, triggered by strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure starting February 28, persists under a fragile two-week ceasefire suspending direct attacks since April 8, while a US naval blockade fully implemented on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz continues as of yesterday. Recent high-level talks in Pakistan collapsed without agreement over demands for nuclear restrictions, proxy support cessation, and blockade lifting, though President Trump indicated potential resumption this week amid Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon outside the truce. Traders weigh ceasefire expiration around April 22 and diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks from Hormuz disruptions or retaliatory actions, requiring 14 uninterrupted days without qualifying military force—including blockades, airstrikes, or proxy engagements—for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,275,634 交易量
2026-05-15
4月7日
86%
4月15日
86%
4月30日
88%
5月15日
91%
6月30日
92%
12月31日
98%
$42,275,634 交易量
4月7日
$15,238,390 交易量
86%
4月15日
$8,993,475 交易量
86%
4月30日
$3,885,800 交易量
88%
5月15日
$3,414,175 交易量
91%
6月30日
$2,863,432 交易量
92%
12月31日
$2,720,777 交易量
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran conflict, triggered by strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure starting February 28, persists under a fragile two-week ceasefire suspending direct attacks since April 8, while a US naval blockade fully implemented on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz continues as of yesterday. Recent high-level talks in Pakistan collapsed without agreement over demands for nuclear restrictions, proxy support cessation, and blockade lifting, though President Trump indicated potential resumption this week amid Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon outside the truce. Traders weigh ceasefire expiration around April 22 and diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks from Hormuz disruptions or retaliatory actions, requiring 14 uninterrupted days without qualifying military force—including blockades, airstrikes, or proxy engagements—for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市场开放时间： Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
交易量
$42,275,634结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel-Iran conflict, triggered by strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure starting February 28, persists under a fragile two-week ceasefire suspending direct attacks since April 8, while a US naval blockade fully implemented on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz continues as of yesterday. Recent high-level talks in Pakistan collapsed without agreement over demands for nuclear restrictions, proxy support cessation, and blockade lifting, though President Trump indicated potential resumption this week amid Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon outside the truce. Traders weigh ceasefire expiration around April 22 and diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks from Hormuz disruptions or retaliatory actions, requiring 14 uninterrupted days without qualifying military force—including blockades, airstrikes, or proxy engagements—for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$42,275,634结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 2, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel-Iran conflict, triggered by strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and military infrastructure starting February 28, persists under a fragile two-week ceasefire suspending direct attacks since April 8, while a US naval blockade fully implemented on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz continues as of yesterday. Recent high-level talks in Pakistan collapsed without agreement over demands for nuclear restrictions, proxy support cessation, and blockade lifting, though President Trump indicated potential resumption this week amid Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon outside the truce. Traders weigh ceasefire expiration around April 22 and diplomatic breakthroughs against escalation risks from Hormuz disruptions or retaliatory actions, requiring 14 uninterrupted days without qualifying military force—including blockades, airstrikes, or proxy engagements—for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题