Current forecasts from multiple models project a minimum temperature near 20–21°C in Chengdu on September 22, aligning with the market’s leading 21°C outcome at 46% implied probability. Light rain or showers expected overnight under mostly cloudy skies, combined with typical Sichuan Basin humidity above 75% and light winds, should limit radiative cooling and keep the overnight low in this narrow range. Historical September lows average around 19°C, but recent model consensus has held steady without sharp revisions in the past 48 hours. Traders appear to weigh the balance between potential slight cooling if skies clear briefly versus warmer readings if precipitation arrives earlier or cloud cover persists, producing the tight clustering around 20–21°C and the elevated probabilities on both the 15°C-or-below and 25°C-or-higher tails. Updated NMC or ECMWF runs ahead of resolution will likely drive any final shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月22日成都最低气温？
9月22日成都最低气温？
25°C或更高 74%
15°C或以下 68%
21°C 53%
16°C 37%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
15°C或以下
68%
16°C
37%
17°C
37%
18°C
37%
19°C
37%
20°C
26%
21°C
40%
22°C
37%
23°C
37%
24°C
37%
25°C或更高
74%
25°C或更高 74%
15°C或以下 68%
21°C 53%
16°C 37%
最新
最新
2026-09-22
15°C或以下
$0 交易量
68%
16°C
$0 交易量
37%
17°C
$0 交易量
37%
18°C
$0 交易量
37%
19°C
$0 交易量
37%
20°C
$0 交易量
26%
21°C
$95 交易量
40%
22°C
$0 交易量
37%
23°C
$0 交易量
37%
24°C
$0 交易量
37%
25°C或更高
$0 交易量
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models project a minimum temperature near 20–21°C in Chengdu on September 22, aligning with the market’s leading 21°C outcome at 46% implied probability. Light rain or showers expected overnight under mostly cloudy skies, combined with typical Sichuan Basin humidity above 75% and light winds, should limit radiative cooling and keep the overnight low in this narrow range. Historical September lows average around 19°C, but recent model consensus has held steady without sharp revisions in the past 48 hours. Traders appear to weigh the balance between potential slight cooling if skies clear briefly versus warmer readings if precipitation arrives earlier or cloud cover persists, producing the tight clustering around 20–21°C and the elevated probabilities on both the 15°C-or-below and 25°C-or-higher tails. Updated NMC or ECMWF runs ahead of resolution will likely drive any final shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$95结束日期
2026-09-22市场开放时间
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models project a minimum temperature near 20–21°C in Chengdu on September 22, aligning with the market’s leading 21°C outcome at 46% implied probability. Light rain or showers expected overnight under mostly cloudy skies, combined with typical Sichuan Basin humidity above 75% and light winds, should limit radiative cooling and keep the overnight low in this narrow range. Historical September lows average around 19°C, but recent model consensus has held steady without sharp revisions in the past 48 hours. Traders appear to weigh the balance between potential slight cooling if skies clear briefly versus warmer readings if precipitation arrives earlier or cloud cover persists, producing the tight clustering around 20–21°C and the elevated probabilities on both the 15°C-or-below and 25°C-or-higher tails. Updated NMC or ECMWF runs ahead of resolution will likely drive any final shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$95结束日期
2026-09-22市场开放时间
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecasts from multiple models project a minimum temperature near 20–21°C in Chengdu on September 22, aligning with the market’s leading 21°C outcome at 46% implied probability. Light rain or showers expected overnight under mostly cloudy skies, combined with typical Sichuan Basin humidity above 75% and light winds, should limit radiative cooling and keep the overnight low in this narrow range. Historical September lows average around 19°C, but recent model consensus has held steady without sharp revisions in the past 48 hours. Traders appear to weigh the balance between potential slight cooling if skies clear briefly versus warmer readings if precipitation arrives earlier or cloud cover persists, producing the tight clustering around 20–21°C and the elevated probabilities on both the 15°C-or-below and 25°C-or-higher tails. Updated NMC or ECMWF runs ahead of resolution will likely drive any final shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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