Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat's consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the party. Primary challengers on the Democratic side and a Republican candidate in Thomas Stalcup have not shifted the race dynamics, reflecting limited crossover appeal in a district encompassing suburban Boston areas with strong partisan leanings. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical voting patterns and incumbency advantages that have preserved all nine Massachusetts House seats for Democrats since the mid-1990s. Scenarios that could narrow the margin remain narrow and would require a significant late-cycle development, such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate-specific event before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$44,155 交易量
$44,155 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$44,155 交易量
$44,155 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$21,877 交易量
95%
共和党
$22,279 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat's consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the party. Primary challengers on the Democratic side and a Republican candidate in Thomas Stalcup have not shifted the race dynamics, reflecting limited crossover appeal in a district encompassing suburban Boston areas with strong partisan leanings. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical voting patterns and incumbency advantages that have preserved all nine Massachusetts House seats for Democrats since the mid-1990s. Scenarios that could narrow the margin remain narrow and would require a significant late-cycle development, such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate-specific event before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$44,155结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat's consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the party. Primary challengers on the Democratic side and a Republican candidate in Thomas Stalcup have not shifted the race dynamics, reflecting limited crossover appeal in a district encompassing suburban Boston areas with strong partisan leanings. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical voting patterns and incumbency advantages that have preserved all nine Massachusetts House seats for Democrats since the mid-1990s. Scenarios that could narrow the margin remain narrow and would require a significant late-cycle development, such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate-specific event before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$44,155结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat's consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe for the party. Primary challengers on the Democratic side and a Republican candidate in Thomas Stalcup have not shifted the race dynamics, reflecting limited crossover appeal in a district encompassing suburban Boston areas with strong partisan leanings. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical voting patterns and incumbency advantages that have preserved all nine Massachusetts House seats for Democrats since the mid-1990s. Scenarios that could narrow the margin remain narrow and would require a significant late-cycle development, such as an unexpected primary upset or major candidate-specific event before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题