Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Tom Cole secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the general election with substantial campaign resources and seniority as House Appropriations Committee chair. The Democratic nominee faces structural challenges in a district where Republican candidates have historically dominated. Trader consensus pricing the Republican nominee near 93 percent incorporates these fundamentals alongside limited recent polling or unexpected developments. A major scandal, significant health event for the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district's voting patterns and fundraising disparities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$22,612 交易量
$22,612 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
$22,612 交易量
$22,612 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$14,404 交易量
94%
民主党
$8,208 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Tom Cole secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the general election with substantial campaign resources and seniority as House Appropriations Committee chair. The Democratic nominee faces structural challenges in a district where Republican candidates have historically dominated. Trader consensus pricing the Republican nominee near 93 percent incorporates these fundamentals alongside limited recent polling or unexpected developments. A major scandal, significant health event for the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district's voting patterns and fundraising disparities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$22,612结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Tom Cole secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the general election with substantial campaign resources and seniority as House Appropriations Committee chair. The Democratic nominee faces structural challenges in a district where Republican candidates have historically dominated. Trader consensus pricing the Republican nominee near 93 percent incorporates these fundamentals alongside limited recent polling or unexpected developments. A major scandal, significant health event for the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district's voting patterns and fundraising disparities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$22,612结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Tom Cole secured the Republican nomination in the June 2026 primary and enters the general election with substantial campaign resources and seniority as House Appropriations Committee chair. The Democratic nominee faces structural challenges in a district where Republican candidates have historically dominated. Trader consensus pricing the Republican nominee near 93 percent incorporates these fundamentals alongside limited recent polling or unexpected developments. A major scandal, significant health event for the incumbent, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district's voting patterns and fundraising disparities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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