Ongoing hostilities and stalled diplomacy continue to shape trader views on any near-term Putin-Zelenskyy handshake. In late June 2026, Zelenskyy proposed direct talks via open letter, offering a ceasefire for negotiations, but Putin rejected the idea as pointless. Trilateral envoy discussions in Geneva earlier in the year addressed territorial issues yet ended without agreement on core demands such as Donbas control and security guarantees. As of late July, Russia indicated it would await fresh U.S. proposals amid persistent battlefield exchanges. These dynamics, combined with historical reluctance from Moscow to grant direct bilateral legitimacy, keep implied probabilities low while leaving room for shifts from renewed U.S. mediation or sudden de-escalation signals.