The 2026 Roraima special gubernatorial election on June 21 produced a decisive first-round result, with Arthur Henrique (PL) securing roughly 61% of valid votes against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 36%, alongside lower shares for candidates including Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others. Persistent legal challenges to Henrique’s eligibility—his candidacy remains sub judice pending court rulings—have prevented certification and kept trader probabilities clustered near even odds. This judicial overhang, rather than polling gaps or coalition shifts, sustains the tight market by leaving open scenarios such as a runoff, annulment, or alternative winner. Upcoming tribunal decisions on eligibility and mandate length through 2027 represent the primary catalysts that could separate outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于阿图尔·恩里克 45%
罗西·艾雷斯 45%
Clébio Genuíno 44%
法拉·梅斯基塔 44%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
阿图尔·恩里克
45%
罗西·艾雷斯
45%
Clébio Genuíno
44%
法拉·梅斯基塔
44%
士兵桑帕约
44%
阿图尔·恩里克 45%
罗西·艾雷斯 45%
Clébio Genuíno 44%
法拉·梅斯基塔 44%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
阿图尔·恩里克
$0 交易量
45%
罗西·艾雷斯
$0 交易量
45%
Clébio Genuíno
$0 交易量
44%
法拉·梅斯基塔
$0 交易量
44%
士兵桑帕约
$0 交易量
44%
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Roraima special gubernatorial election on June 21 produced a decisive first-round result, with Arthur Henrique (PL) securing roughly 61% of valid votes against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 36%, alongside lower shares for candidates including Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others. Persistent legal challenges to Henrique’s eligibility—his candidacy remains sub judice pending court rulings—have prevented certification and kept trader probabilities clustered near even odds. This judicial overhang, rather than polling gaps or coalition shifts, sustains the tight market by leaving open scenarios such as a runoff, annulment, or alternative winner. Upcoming tribunal decisions on eligibility and mandate length through 2027 represent the primary catalysts that could separate outcomes.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Roraima special gubernatorial election on June 21 produced a decisive first-round result, with Arthur Henrique (PL) securing roughly 61% of valid votes against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 36%, alongside lower shares for candidates including Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others. Persistent legal challenges to Henrique’s eligibility—his candidacy remains sub judice pending court rulings—have prevented certification and kept trader probabilities clustered near even odds. This judicial overhang, rather than polling gaps or coalition shifts, sustains the tight market by leaving open scenarios such as a runoff, annulment, or alternative winner. Upcoming tribunal decisions on eligibility and mandate length through 2027 represent the primary catalysts that could separate outcomes.
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Roraima special gubernatorial election on June 21 produced a decisive first-round result, with Arthur Henrique (PL) securing roughly 61% of valid votes against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 36%, alongside lower shares for candidates including Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others. Persistent legal challenges to Henrique’s eligibility—his candidacy remains sub judice pending court rulings—have prevented certification and kept trader probabilities clustered near even odds. This judicial overhang, rather than polling gaps or coalition shifts, sustains the tight market by leaving open scenarios such as a runoff, annulment, or alternative winner. Upcoming tribunal decisions on eligibility and mandate length through 2027 represent the primary catalysts that could separate outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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