Google's recent Gemini 3 advancements in mathematical reasoning, including leading or near-top scores on AIME 2025, GPQA Diamond, and MathArena benchmarks, anchor trader sentiment for the second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab by end of October. Intense competition from multiple labs—evidenced by closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous outcomes—highlights rapid progress in specialized reasoning models, open-source efficiency gains, and Chinese developers' benchmark parity. Key differentiators include tool-free problem-solving robustness, context handling, and consistent performance across math subdomains. New model releases, fine-tunes, or arena leaderboard shifts before resolution could quickly alter the crowded field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于谷歌 56%
阿里巴巴 12%
OpenAI 10%
Z.ai 8%
$14,794 交易量
$14,794 交易量
2026-10-31
谷歌
56%
阿里巴巴
12%
OpenAI
10%
Z.ai
8%
Anthropic
6%
美团
4%
DeepSeek
4%
亚马逊
3%
字节跳动
3%
微软
3%
Moonshot
3%
小米
3%
百度
3%
英伟达
3%
Meta
3%
腾讯
2%
StepFun
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
<1%
谷歌 56%
阿里巴巴 12%
OpenAI 10%
Z.ai 8%
$14,794 交易量
$14,794 交易量
2026-10-31
谷歌
$10,780 交易量
56%
阿里巴巴
$435 交易量
12%
OpenAI
$213 交易量
10%
Z.ai
$248 交易量
8%
Anthropic
$177 交易量
6%
美团
$524 交易量
4%
DeepSeek
$108 交易量
4%
亚马逊
$235 交易量
3%
字节跳动
$150 交易量
3%
微软
$302 交易量
3%
Moonshot
$106 交易量
3%
小米
$64 交易量
3%
百度
$106 交易量
3%
英伟达
$270 交易量
3%
Meta
$106 交易量
3%
腾讯
$259 交易量
2%
StepFun
$223 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$101 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$176 交易量
1%
Mistral
$212 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's recent Gemini 3 advancements in mathematical reasoning, including leading or near-top scores on AIME 2025, GPQA Diamond, and MathArena benchmarks, anchor trader sentiment for the second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab by end of October. Intense competition from multiple labs—evidenced by closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous outcomes—highlights rapid progress in specialized reasoning models, open-source efficiency gains, and Chinese developers' benchmark parity. Key differentiators include tool-free problem-solving robustness, context handling, and consistent performance across math subdomains. New model releases, fine-tunes, or arena leaderboard shifts before resolution could quickly alter the crowded field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
交易量
$14,794结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's recent Gemini 3 advancements in mathematical reasoning, including leading or near-top scores on AIME 2025, GPQA Diamond, and MathArena benchmarks, anchor trader sentiment for the second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab by end of October. Intense competition from multiple labs—evidenced by closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous outcomes—highlights rapid progress in specialized reasoning models, open-source efficiency gains, and Chinese developers' benchmark parity. Key differentiators include tool-free problem-solving robustness, context handling, and consistent performance across math subdomains. New model releases, fine-tunes, or arena leaderboard shifts before resolution could quickly alter the crowded field.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$14,794结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's recent Gemini 3 advancements in mathematical reasoning, including leading or near-top scores on AIME 2025, GPQA Diamond, and MathArena benchmarks, anchor trader sentiment for the second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab by end of October. Intense competition from multiple labs—evidenced by closely matched 50% implied probabilities across numerous outcomes—highlights rapid progress in specialized reasoning models, open-source efficiency gains, and Chinese developers' benchmark parity. Key differentiators include tool-free problem-solving robustness, context handling, and consistent performance across math subdomains. New model releases, fine-tunes, or arena leaderboard shifts before resolution could quickly alter the crowded field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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