Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Enrique Leaño at 42.3% implied probability to win Bolivia's Sucre mayoral election, driven by recent polls from firms like Ciesmori and Ipsos showing him ahead by 15-20 points among registered voters in Chuquisaca department. Leaño, backed by the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party amid internal opposition fractures, benefits from strong grassroots mobilization and endorsements from local MAS leaders following the candidate registration deadline last month. Cristian Sanabria (19.5%) gains from Comunidad Ciudadana momentum in urban areas, while Hebert Marcelo Terrazas (13.3%) and Pablo Arízaga (12.2%) draw support from evangelical and independent voters, respectively. Upcoming debates and a potential MAS unity rally could shift odds before the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于恩里克·莱尼奥 54.6%
克里斯蒂安·萨纳布里亚 9%
胡安·安东尼奥·赫苏斯 4.2%
奥拉西奥·波佩 3.7%
$23,787 交易量
$23,787 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
恩里克·莱尼奥
55%
克里斯蒂安·萨纳布里亚
19%
胡安·安东尼奥·赫苏斯
4%
奥拉西奥·波佩
4%
埃里克·马塞洛·佩德拉萨斯·洛佩斯
3%
理查德·莫斯科索
3%
巴勃罗·阿里萨加
11%
弗朗茨·塔塔·加西亚
1%
塞西莉娅·卡拉尼
1%
法蒂玛·塔迪奥
1%
Wilber Chocamani
11%
埃贝尔特·马塞洛·特拉萨斯
11%
恩里克·莱尼奥 54.6%
克里斯蒂安·萨纳布里亚 9%
胡安·安东尼奥·赫苏斯 4.2%
奥拉西奥·波佩 3.7%
$23,787 交易量
$23,787 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
恩里克·莱尼奥
$5,697 交易量
55%
克里斯蒂安·萨纳布里亚
$12,946 交易量
19%
胡安·安东尼奥·赫苏斯
$0 交易量
4%
奥拉西奥·波佩
$1,339 交易量
4%
埃里克·马塞洛·佩德拉萨斯·洛佩斯
$711 交易量
3%
理查德·莫斯科索
$0 交易量
3%
巴勃罗·阿里萨加
$0 交易量
11%
弗朗茨·塔塔·加西亚
$620 交易量
1%
塞西莉娅·卡拉尼
$857 交易量
1%
法蒂玛·塔迪奥
$843 交易量
1%
Wilber Chocamani
$0 交易量
11%
埃贝尔特·马塞洛·特拉萨斯
$775 交易量
11%
The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
交易量
$23,787结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).The Sucre mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
交易量
$23,787结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Enrique Leaño at 42.3% implied probability to win Bolivia's Sucre mayoral election, driven by recent polls from firms like Ciesmori and Ipsos showing him ahead by 15-20 points among registered voters in Chuquisaca department. Leaño, backed by the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party amid internal opposition fractures, benefits from strong grassroots mobilization and endorsements from local MAS leaders following the candidate registration deadline last month. Cristian Sanabria (19.5%) gains from Comunidad Ciudadana momentum in urban areas, while Hebert Marcelo Terrazas (13.3%) and Pablo Arízaga (12.2%) draw support from evangelical and independent voters, respectively. Upcoming debates and a potential MAS unity rally could shift odds before the vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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