Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Josée Massi at 58% implied probability to win the Toulon mayoral election, driven by recent polls showing her leading Laure Lavalette 52-38% in a first-round simulation from IFOP for Le Figaro, reflecting Les Républicains' incumbency advantage under retiring Mayor Hubert Falco. Lavalette's 42% odds stem from National Rally's regional surge in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, bolstered by Marine Le Pen's endorsement. Negligible support for others like Jean-Michel Ghiotto highlights a two-horse race. Key catalysts include candidate declarations in late 2024 and Falco's party backing for Massi, with momentum shifting after RN's internal primary; watch March 2026 voting amid potential turnout volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Josée Massi 58%
劳尔·拉瓦莱特 42%
让-米歇尔·吉奥托 <1%
玛加利·布鲁内尔 <1%
$142,870 交易量
$142,870 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
Josée Massi
58%
劳尔·拉瓦莱特
42%
让-米歇尔·吉奥托
<1%
玛加利·布鲁内尔
<1%
伊萨琳·科尔尼尔
<1%
米歇尔·邦努斯
<1%
Josée Massi 58%
劳尔·拉瓦莱特 42%
让-米歇尔·吉奥托 <1%
玛加利·布鲁内尔 <1%
$142,870 交易量
$142,870 交易量
Mar 22, 2026
Josée Massi
$33,182 交易量
58%
劳尔·拉瓦莱特
$35,583 交易量
42%
让-米歇尔·吉奥托
$14,180 交易量
<1%
玛加利·布鲁内尔
$14,454 交易量
<1%
伊萨琳·科尔尼尔
$22,710 交易量
<1%
米歇尔·邦努斯
$22,761 交易量
<1%
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市场开放时间： Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
交易量
$142,870结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
交易量
$142,870结束日期
Mar 22, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Josée Massi at 58% implied probability to win the Toulon mayoral election, driven by recent polls showing her leading Laure Lavalette 52-38% in a first-round simulation from IFOP for Le Figaro, reflecting Les Républicains' incumbency advantage under retiring Mayor Hubert Falco. Lavalette's 42% odds stem from National Rally's regional surge in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, bolstered by Marine Le Pen's endorsement. Negligible support for others like Jean-Michel Ghiotto highlights a two-horse race. Key catalysts include candidate declarations in late 2024 and Falco's party backing for Massi, with momentum shifting after RN's internal primary; watch March 2026 voting amid potential turnout volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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