President Trump's April 14 Fox Business interview, stating the U.S.-Iran war is "very close to over" amid a holding two-week ceasefire agreed April 8, has fueled trader optimism for an imminent announcement ending military operations launched February 28, while today's Pentagon briefing by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth underscored ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement and U.S. readiness for strikes if talks fail post-April 22 deadline. This mix of de-escalation signals and pressure tactics explains elevated implied probabilities for resolution by May 31 (72%) or June 30 (82%), as traders weigh successful prior airstrikes degrading Iran's navy and missiles against negotiation risks with Tehran on nuclear curbs and proxies. Upcoming talks could tip odds higher for near-term closure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$26,901,418 交易量
2026-04-21
4月21日
13%
4月30日
35%
5月31日
72%
6月30日
82%
$26,901,418 交易量
4月21日
$1,253,769 交易量
13%
4月30日
$5,335,830 交易量
35%
5月31日
$364,594 交易量
72%
6月30日
$1,946,199 交易量
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's April 14 Fox Business interview, stating the U.S.-Iran war is "very close to over" amid a holding two-week ceasefire agreed April 8, has fueled trader optimism for an imminent announcement ending military operations launched February 28, while today's Pentagon briefing by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth underscored ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement and U.S. readiness for strikes if talks fail post-April 22 deadline. This mix of de-escalation signals and pressure tactics explains elevated implied probabilities for resolution by May 31 (72%) or June 30 (82%), as traders weigh successful prior airstrikes degrading Iran's navy and missiles against negotiation risks with Tehran on nuclear curbs and proxies. Upcoming talks could tip odds higher for near-term closure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 8, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
交易量
$26,901,418结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's April 14 Fox Business interview, stating the U.S.-Iran war is "very close to over" amid a holding two-week ceasefire agreed April 8, has fueled trader optimism for an imminent announcement ending military operations launched February 28, while today's Pentagon briefing by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth underscored ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement and U.S. readiness for strikes if talks fail post-April 22 deadline. This mix of de-escalation signals and pressure tactics explains elevated implied probabilities for resolution by May 31 (72%) or June 30 (82%), as traders weigh successful prior airstrikes degrading Iran's navy and missiles against negotiation risks with Tehran on nuclear curbs and proxies. Upcoming talks could tip odds higher for near-term closure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$26,901,418结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 8, 2026, 10:55 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's April 14 Fox Business interview, stating the U.S.-Iran war is "very close to over" amid a holding two-week ceasefire agreed April 8, has fueled trader optimism for an imminent announcement ending military operations launched February 28, while today's Pentagon briefing by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth underscored ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade enforcement and U.S. readiness for strikes if talks fail post-April 22 deadline. This mix of de-escalation signals and pressure tactics explains elevated implied probabilities for resolution by May 31 (72%) or June 30 (82%), as traders weigh successful prior airstrikes degrading Iran's navy and missiles against negotiation risks with Tehran on nuclear curbs and proxies. Upcoming talks could tip odds higher for near-term closure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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