Trader consensus heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 90% implied probability to win the Texas 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his polling edge and fundraising dominance over veteran incumbent Rep. Al Green. Redistricting merged districts held by both Democrats—Menefee after winning a 2026 special election following Sylvester Turner's death—leading to their March 3 primary matchup where neither exceeded 50%, forcing the runoff. Recent polls, including a New York Times aggregate showing Menefee ahead 41%-35%, and first-quarter filings revealing Menefee raising over $1 million versus Green's half that amount, have solidified his position amid a generational contrast, with minor candidates Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards trailing far behind.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于克里斯蒂安·梅尼菲 89.5%
Al Green 10.1%
格雷琴·布朗 <1%
阿曼达·爱德华兹 <1%
$27,214 交易量
$27,214 交易量
克里斯蒂安·梅尼菲
89%
Al Green
10%
格雷琴·布朗
<1%
阿曼达·爱德华兹
<1%
克里斯蒂安·梅尼菲 89.5%
Al Green 10.1%
格雷琴·布朗 <1%
阿曼达·爱德华兹 <1%
$27,214 交易量
$27,214 交易量
克里斯蒂安·梅尼菲
89%
Al Green
10%
格雷琴·布朗
<1%
阿曼达·爱德华兹
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 90% implied probability to win the Texas 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff on May 26, reflecting his polling edge and fundraising dominance over veteran incumbent Rep. Al Green. Redistricting merged districts held by both Democrats—Menefee after winning a 2026 special election following Sylvester Turner's death—leading to their March 3 primary matchup where neither exceeded 50%, forcing the runoff. Recent polls, including a New York Times aggregate showing Menefee ahead 41%-35%, and first-quarter filings revealing Menefee raising over $1 million versus Green's half that amount, have solidified his position amid a generational contrast, with minor candidates Gretchen Brown and Amanda Edwards trailing far behind.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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