Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to consistent polling margins of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who won a contested August 4 primary. Virginia's recent federal voting patterns, Warner's long tenure since 2009, and the absence of major competitive pressure support trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat. Late developments that could narrow the gap include national political realignments before November, candidate health issues, or significant campaign finance shifts, though current evidence shows limited movement in these areas.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$16,798 交易量
$16,798 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$16,798 交易量
$16,798 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$10,075 交易量
95%
共和党
$6,723 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to consistent polling margins of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who won a contested August 4 primary. Virginia's recent federal voting patterns, Warner's long tenure since 2009, and the absence of major competitive pressure support trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat. Late developments that could narrow the gap include national political realignments before November, candidate health issues, or significant campaign finance shifts, though current evidence shows limited movement in these areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$16,798结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to consistent polling margins of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who won a contested August 4 primary. Virginia's recent federal voting patterns, Warner's long tenure since 2009, and the absence of major competitive pressure support trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat. Late developments that could narrow the gap include national political realignments before November, candidate health issues, or significant campaign finance shifts, though current evidence shows limited movement in these areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$16,798结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to consistent polling margins of roughly 20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who won a contested August 4 primary. Virginia's recent federal voting patterns, Warner's long tenure since 2009, and the absence of major competitive pressure support trader consensus around a 95% implied probability for the Democratic outcome. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the contest Solid Democrat. Late developments that could narrow the gap include national political realignments before November, candidate health issues, or significant campaign finance shifts, though current evidence shows limited movement in these areas.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题