Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory at 92.5%. Virginia’s political demographics, Warner’s long incumbency since 2009, and consistent polling leads of roughly 25 points or more in May 2026 surveys underpin this assessment. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. The Republican primary field remains relatively weak after a prominent challenger withdrew in late 2025, limiting organized opposition ahead of the August 4 primaries. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national Republican surge, an unforeseen Democratic primary development, or a significant shift in voter turnout patterns in suburban or rural areas.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$8,033 交易量
93%
共和党
$1,482 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory at 92.5%. Virginia’s political demographics, Warner’s long incumbency since 2009, and consistent polling leads of roughly 25 points or more in May 2026 surveys underpin this assessment. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. The Republican primary field remains relatively weak after a prominent challenger withdrew in late 2025, limiting organized opposition ahead of the August 4 primaries. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national Republican surge, an unforeseen Democratic primary development, or a significant shift in voter turnout patterns in suburban or rural areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$9,515结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory at 92.5%. Virginia’s political demographics, Warner’s long incumbency since 2009, and consistent polling leads of roughly 25 points or more in May 2026 surveys underpin this assessment. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. The Republican primary field remains relatively weak after a prominent challenger withdrew in late 2025, limiting organized opposition ahead of the August 4 primaries. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national Republican surge, an unforeseen Democratic primary development, or a significant shift in voter turnout patterns in suburban or rural areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$9,515结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory at 92.5%. Virginia’s political demographics, Warner’s long incumbency since 2009, and consistent polling leads of roughly 25 points or more in May 2026 surveys underpin this assessment. Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. The Republican primary field remains relatively weak after a prominent challenger withdrew in late 2025, limiting organized opposition ahead of the August 4 primaries. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late national Republican surge, an unforeseen Democratic primary development, or a significant shift in voter turnout patterns in suburban or rural areas.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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