**Strong technical fingerprinting evidence positions Z.ai as the clear leader in the Ox Alpha market.** The anonymous reasoning model surfaced on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, offering a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and agentic workloads. Community probes—including exact tokenizer matches, API error strings, and infrastructure fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, consistent with the company’s prior stealth preview of GLM-5 as “Pony Alpha.” Other labs show far weaker or zero matches, explaining their sub-5% implied probabilities. No company has claimed ownership yet, and while some early speculation considered Microsoft or Xiaomi, the accumulating evidence has consolidated trader consensus around Z.ai ahead of any official announcement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Z.ai 90%
Google 4.1%
小米 3.4%
Cursor 1.9%
最新
$29,676 交易量
最新
$29,676 交易量
2026-12-31
Z.ai
90%
4%
小米
3%
Cursor
2%
Safe Superintelligence
2%
Meta
1%
微软
1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
美团
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
英伟达
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
腾讯
<1%
StepFun
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
月之暗面
<1%
百度
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Z.ai 90%
Google 4.1%
小米 3.4%
Cursor 1.9%
最新
$29,676 交易量
最新
$29,676 交易量
2026-12-31
Z.ai
$9,418 交易量
90%
$1,708 交易量
4%
小米
$1,320 交易量
3%
Cursor
$1,224 交易量
2%
Safe Superintelligence
$1,424 交易量
2%
Meta
$366 交易量
1%
微软
$1,177 交易量
1%
xAI
$1,317 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,289 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$1,121 交易量
<1%
美团
$579 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$527 交易量
<1%
Anthropic
$547 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$532 交易量
<1%
英伟达
$918 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$770 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$871 交易量
<1%
腾讯
$984 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$881 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$981 交易量
<1%
月之暗面
$757 交易量
<1%
百度
$366 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$602 交易量
<1%
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong technical fingerprinting evidence positions Z.ai as the clear leader in the Ox Alpha market.** The anonymous reasoning model surfaced on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, offering a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and agentic workloads. Community probes—including exact tokenizer matches, API error strings, and infrastructure fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, consistent with the company’s prior stealth preview of GLM-5 as “Pony Alpha.” Other labs show far weaker or zero matches, explaining their sub-5% implied probabilities. No company has claimed ownership yet, and while some early speculation considered Microsoft or Xiaomi, the accumulating evidence has consolidated trader consensus around Z.ai ahead of any official announcement.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
交易量
$29,676结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong technical fingerprinting evidence positions Z.ai as the clear leader in the Ox Alpha market.** The anonymous reasoning model surfaced on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, offering a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and agentic workloads. Community probes—including exact tokenizer matches, API error strings, and infrastructure fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, consistent with the company’s prior stealth preview of GLM-5 as “Pony Alpha.” Other labs show far weaker or zero matches, explaining their sub-5% implied probabilities. No company has claimed ownership yet, and while some early speculation considered Microsoft or Xiaomi, the accumulating evidence has consolidated trader consensus around Z.ai ahead of any official announcement.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$29,676结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong technical fingerprinting evidence positions Z.ai as the clear leader in the Ox Alpha market.** The anonymous reasoning model surfaced on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, offering a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and agentic workloads. Community probes—including exact tokenizer matches, API error strings, and infrastructure fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, consistent with the company’s prior stealth preview of GLM-5 as “Pony Alpha.” Other labs show far weaker or zero matches, explaining their sub-5% implied probabilities. No company has claimed ownership yet, and while some early speculation considered Microsoft or Xiaomi, the accumulating evidence has consolidated trader consensus around Z.ai ahead of any official announcement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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