Anthropic's Claude large language model has faced a surge of outages in early-to-mid April 2026, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for 12+ downtime days, as capacity constraints from unprecedented demand overwhelm infrastructure during the company's push for AI revenue leadership. Key catalysts include confirmed incidents on April 15 (major outage affecting Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code, resolved after 90 minutes), April 16 (Opus 4.6 elevated errors), April 14 (degraded service), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 9, and April 8, per the official status page—already tallying at least seven affected days midway through the month. Traders anticipate further disruptions absent scaling fixes, with resolution hinging on distinct calendar days of reported issues via Downdetector or status updates; remaining weeks could solidify the high-end outcome amid competitive pressures from OpenAI.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于12+ 88%
9-11 12%
6-8 <1%
$64,310 交易量
$64,310 交易量
2026-04-30
6-8
<1%
9-11
12%
12+
88%
12+ 88%
9-11 12%
6-8 <1%
$64,310 交易量
$64,310 交易量
2026-04-30
6-8
$9,506 交易量
<1%
9-11
$7,936 交易量
12%
12+
$14,572 交易量
88%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude large language model has faced a surge of outages in early-to-mid April 2026, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for 12+ downtime days, as capacity constraints from unprecedented demand overwhelm infrastructure during the company's push for AI revenue leadership. Key catalysts include confirmed incidents on April 15 (major outage affecting Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code, resolved after 90 minutes), April 16 (Opus 4.6 elevated errors), April 14 (degraded service), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 9, and April 8, per the official status page—already tallying at least seven affected days midway through the month. Traders anticipate further disruptions absent scaling fixes, with resolution hinging on distinct calendar days of reported issues via Downdetector or status updates; remaining weeks could solidify the high-end outcome amid competitive pressures from OpenAI.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
交易量
$64,310结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude large language model has faced a surge of outages in early-to-mid April 2026, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for 12+ downtime days, as capacity constraints from unprecedented demand overwhelm infrastructure during the company's push for AI revenue leadership. Key catalysts include confirmed incidents on April 15 (major outage affecting Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code, resolved after 90 minutes), April 16 (Opus 4.6 elevated errors), April 14 (degraded service), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 9, and April 8, per the official status page—already tallying at least seven affected days midway through the month. Traders anticipate further disruptions absent scaling fixes, with resolution hinging on distinct calendar days of reported issues via Downdetector or status updates; remaining weeks could solidify the high-end outcome amid competitive pressures from OpenAI.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
交易量
$64,310结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude large language model has faced a surge of outages in early-to-mid April 2026, driving trader consensus to an 87.5% implied probability for 12+ downtime days, as capacity constraints from unprecedented demand overwhelm infrastructure during the company's push for AI revenue leadership. Key catalysts include confirmed incidents on April 15 (major outage affecting Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code, resolved after 90 minutes), April 16 (Opus 4.6 elevated errors), April 14 (degraded service), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 9, and April 8, per the official status page—already tallying at least seven affected days midway through the month. Traders anticipate further disruptions absent scaling fixes, with resolution hinging on distinct calendar days of reported issues via Downdetector or status updates; remaining weeks could solidify the high-end outcome amid competitive pressures from OpenAI.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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