Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting heightened caution beyond the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook forecast of 3.1%, downgraded 0.2 percentage points due to the Middle East conflict—assumed limited but risking energy price surges and inflation persistence. Recent OECD projections at 2.9% underscore eurozone weakness and trade disruptions, while German institutes slashed forecasts amid war-driven costs, amplifying downside risks. Consensus tilts low as AI-driven U.S. resilience offsets emerging market slowdowns, with 3.0–3.1% outcomes at 18% each signaling tight contest; escalation or oil above $100/barrel could validate sub-3% pricing ahead of mid-year data releases.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
≤2.9% 24%
3.7%+ 12.8%
3.1% 6.8%
3.2% 5.2%
$15,683 Vol.
$15,683 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
39%
3.0%
18%
3.1%
18%
3.2%
5%
3.3%
2%
3.4%
4%
3.5%
5%
3.6%
1%
3.7%+
13%
≤2.9% 24%
3.7%+ 12.8%
3.1% 6.8%
3.2% 5.2%
$15,683 Vol.
$15,683 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
$3,737 Vol.
39%
3.0%
$405 Vol.
18%
3.1%
$368 Vol.
18%
3.2%
$1,553 Vol.
5%
3.3%
$1,899 Vol.
2%
3.4%
$3,507 Vol.
4%
3.5%
$2,991 Vol.
5%
3.6%
$452 Vol.
1%
3.7%+
$771 Vol.
13%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting heightened caution beyond the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook forecast of 3.1%, downgraded 0.2 percentage points due to the Middle East conflict—assumed limited but risking energy price surges and inflation persistence. Recent OECD projections at 2.9% underscore eurozone weakness and trade disruptions, while German institutes slashed forecasts amid war-driven costs, amplifying downside risks. Consensus tilts low as AI-driven U.S. resilience offsets emerging market slowdowns, with 3.0–3.1% outcomes at 18% each signaling tight contest; escalation or oil above $100/barrel could validate sub-3% pricing ahead of mid-year data releases.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
ভলিউম
$15,683শেষ তারিখ
Jan 15, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting heightened caution beyond the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook forecast of 3.1%, downgraded 0.2 percentage points due to the Middle East conflict—assumed limited but risking energy price surges and inflation persistence. Recent OECD projections at 2.9% underscore eurozone weakness and trade disruptions, while German institutes slashed forecasts amid war-driven costs, amplifying downside risks. Consensus tilts low as AI-driven U.S. resilience offsets emerging market slowdowns, with 3.0–3.1% outcomes at 18% each signaling tight contest; escalation or oil above $100/barrel could validate sub-3% pricing ahead of mid-year data releases.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ভলিউম
$15,683শেষ তারিখ
Jan 15, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting heightened caution beyond the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook forecast of 3.1%, downgraded 0.2 percentage points due to the Middle East conflict—assumed limited but risking energy price surges and inflation persistence. Recent OECD projections at 2.9% underscore eurozone weakness and trade disruptions, while German institutes slashed forecasts amid war-driven costs, amplifying downside risks. Consensus tilts low as AI-driven U.S. resilience offsets emerging market slowdowns, with 3.0–3.1% outcomes at 18% each signaling tight contest; escalation or oil above $100/barrel could validate sub-3% pricing ahead of mid-year data releases.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা