Recent inflation readings and resilient labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, have reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have shifted trader focus toward data-dependent hikes, with market pricing now implying roughly a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to a 3.75–4.00% target range. The closely bunched Polymarket probabilities across multi-meeting paths reflect uncertainty over whether subsequent pauses or additional hikes will follow, driven by evolving inflation trajectories, potential energy price volatility from geopolitical developments, and the September dot plot update.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHike–Pause–Hike 26%
Hike–Hike–Pause 19%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Hike–Hike–Hike 19%
$26,398 Vol.
$26,398 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
26%
Hike–Pause–Pause
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
19%
Hike–Hike–Pause
19%
Pause–Pause–Hike
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
11%
Pause–Hike–Hike
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
2%
Other
7%
Hike–Pause–Hike 26%
Hike–Hike–Pause 19%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Hike–Hike–Hike 19%
$26,398 Vol.
$26,398 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$1,796 Vol.
26%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$1,632 Vol.
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$1,611 Vol.
19%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$1,769 Vol.
19%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$1,584 Vol.
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$14,765 Vol.
11%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$1,300 Vol.
4%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$1,553 Vol.
2%
Other
$388 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and resilient labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, have reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have shifted trader focus toward data-dependent hikes, with market pricing now implying roughly a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to a 3.75–4.00% target range. The closely bunched Polymarket probabilities across multi-meeting paths reflect uncertainty over whether subsequent pauses or additional hikes will follow, driven by evolving inflation trajectories, potential energy price volatility from geopolitical developments, and the September dot plot update.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$26,398শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and resilient labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, have reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have shifted trader focus toward data-dependent hikes, with market pricing now implying roughly a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to a 3.75–4.00% target range. The closely bunched Polymarket probabilities across multi-meeting paths reflect uncertainty over whether subsequent pauses or additional hikes will follow, driven by evolving inflation trajectories, potential energy price volatility from geopolitical developments, and the September dot plot update.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$26,398শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings and resilient labor market data, including August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, have reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the removal of forward guidance have shifted trader focus toward data-dependent hikes, with market pricing now implying roughly a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to a 3.75–4.00% target range. The closely bunched Polymarket probabilities across multi-meeting paths reflect uncertainty over whether subsequent pauses or additional hikes will follow, driven by evolving inflation trajectories, potential energy price volatility from geopolitical developments, and the September dot plot update.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা