Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2027 because Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in 2025 and recent estimates place the next binding limit and X-date well into 2028 after extraordinary measures. The Treasury has maintained steady auction schedules and built substantial cash reserves, while major rating agencies have affirmed stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign credit. Historical precedent shows repeated bipartisan resolutions of debt-limit impasses before any payment failure occurs, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status and deep Treasury market. Plausible shifts could still arise from an extended 2027 congressional standoff that exhausts cash buffers or from an abrupt fiscal shock that accelerates borrowing needs beyond current projections.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% সম্ভাবনা
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% সম্ভাবনা
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2027 because Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in 2025 and recent estimates place the next binding limit and X-date well into 2028 after extraordinary measures. The Treasury has maintained steady auction schedules and built substantial cash reserves, while major rating agencies have affirmed stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign credit. Historical precedent shows repeated bipartisan resolutions of debt-limit impasses before any payment failure occurs, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status and deep Treasury market. Plausible shifts could still arise from an extended 2027 congressional standoff that exhausts cash buffers or from an abrupt fiscal shock that accelerates borrowing needs beyond current projections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
ভলিউম
$18,051শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2027 because Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in 2025 and recent estimates place the next binding limit and X-date well into 2028 after extraordinary measures. The Treasury has maintained steady auction schedules and built substantial cash reserves, while major rating agencies have affirmed stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign credit. Historical precedent shows repeated bipartisan resolutions of debt-limit impasses before any payment failure occurs, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status and deep Treasury market. Plausible shifts could still arise from an extended 2027 congressional standoff that exhausts cash buffers or from an abrupt fiscal shock that accelerates borrowing needs beyond current projections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
ভলিউম
$18,051শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2027 because Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in 2025 and recent estimates place the next binding limit and X-date well into 2028 after extraordinary measures. The Treasury has maintained steady auction schedules and built substantial cash reserves, while major rating agencies have affirmed stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign credit. Historical precedent shows repeated bipartisan resolutions of debt-limit impasses before any payment failure occurs, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status and deep Treasury market. Plausible shifts could still arise from an extended 2027 congressional standoff that exhausts cash buffers or from an abrupt fiscal shock that accelerates borrowing needs beyond current projections.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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