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Politik·Raubüberfall

Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?

Market icon
Politik·Raubüberfall

Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?

26% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
26% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance of "No" recovery by April 15 for the three masterpieces—"Fish" by Renoir, "Still Life with Cherries" by Cézanne, and "Odalisque on the Terrace" by Matisse—stolen from Italy's Magnani Rocca Foundation during a swift nighttime heist on March 22-23. Italian law enforcement is analyzing surveillance video of four masked intruders who executed the break-in in under three minutes, but no arrests, leads, or physical recoveries have been reported in the intervening week. Historical recovery rates for stolen art hover at just 5-10%, reinforcing trader skepticism over a rapid resolution amid the brief two-week window and challenges of black-market trafficking.

On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.

If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$33
Enddatum
15. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance of "No" recovery by April 15 for the three masterpieces—"Fish" by Renoir, "Still Life with Cherries" by Cézanne, and "Odalisque on the Terrace" by Matisse—stolen from Italy's Magnani Rocca Foundation during a swift nighttime heist on March 22-23. Italian law enforcement is analyzing surveillance video of four masked intruders who executed the break-in in under three minutes, but no arrests, leads, or physical recoveries have been reported in the intervening week. Historical recovery rates for stolen art hover at just 5-10%, reinforcing trader skepticism over a rapid resolution amid the brief two-week window and challenges of black-market trafficking.

On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.

If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$33
Enddatum
15. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 17% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 17¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 17%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Mar 31, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" liegt bei 17% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 17% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.