Trader consensus clusters around 300-399 posts for Elon Musk's X activity during March 27-April 3, 2026, with 300-359 ranges each at 11.5% implied probability, reflecting his historical weekly average of roughly 350 posts amid Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. Recent surges—over 400 in election-heavy weeks—fuel upside bets on 380+, while quieter periods like post-merger lulls support 280-299 at 9.5%. Competitive dynamics hinge on unpredictable catalysts: potential xAI announcements or regulatory drama could spike volume 20-50% above baseline, versus downtime from vacations or platform tweaks capping below 300. Awarding no edge to extremes, markets price a standard news-driven week as most likely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert300-319 12%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
360-379 11%
$164,487 Vol.
$164,487 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
6%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
3%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 12%
320-339 12%
340-359 12%
360-379 11%
$164,487 Vol.
$164,487 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
6%
260-279
7%
280-299
10%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
12%
360-379
11%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
3%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters around 300-399 posts for Elon Musk's X activity during March 27-April 3, 2026, with 300-359 ranges each at 11.5% implied probability, reflecting his historical weekly average of roughly 350 posts amid Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. Recent surges—over 400 in election-heavy weeks—fuel upside bets on 380+, while quieter periods like post-merger lulls support 280-299 at 9.5%. Competitive dynamics hinge on unpredictable catalysts: potential xAI announcements or regulatory drama could spike volume 20-50% above baseline, versus downtime from vacations or platform tweaks capping below 300. Awarding no edge to extremes, markets price a standard news-driven week as most likely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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