Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk maintaining his hyperactive X posting rhythm into May 2026, with the highest implied probability (19.3%) for 1600-1679 tweets, closely trailed by 1320-1359 and 1480-1519 at 17.9% each, implying a daily clip of 42-54 posts over 31 days. This clustering reflects his recent averages—often exceeding 1300 monthly amid Tesla launches, xAI updates, and political sparring—showing no signs of abatement under his X ownership, where algorithm tweaks reward volume. Differentiators include potential election-year spikes boosting upper ranges, versus quieter periods favoring mid-bins, but low odds on extremes (<1200 or >2000) underscore bettors' faith in steady, voluminous output absent major disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert1320-1359 17.9%
1480-1519 17.9%
1400-1439 16.0%
1360-1399 15.5%
$45,899 Vol.
$45,899 Vol.
<20
1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160–179
1%
180-199
1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280–299
<1%
300-319
1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
8%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
3%
1200-1239
13%
1240-1279
14%
1280-1319
15%
1320-1359
18%
1360-1399
16%
1400-1439
16%
1440-1479
14%
1480-1519
18%
1520-1559
9%
1560-1599
9%
1600-1679
19%
1680-1759
18%
1760-1839
1%
1840-1919
1%
1920-1999
1%
2000+
2%
1320-1359 17.9%
1480-1519 17.9%
1400-1439 16.0%
1360-1399 15.5%
$45,899 Vol.
$45,899 Vol.
<20
1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160–179
1%
180-199
1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280–299
<1%
300-319
1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
1%
720-739
1%
740-759
1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
2%
880-919
2%
920-959
2%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
2%
1040-1079
8%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
2%
1160-1199
3%
1200-1239
13%
1240-1279
14%
1280-1319
15%
1320-1359
18%
1360-1399
16%
1400-1439
16%
1440-1479
14%
1480-1519
18%
1520-1559
9%
1560-1599
9%
1600-1679
19%
1680-1759
18%
1760-1839
1%
1840-1919
1%
1920-1999
1%
2000+
2%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk maintaining his hyperactive X posting rhythm into May 2026, with the highest implied probability (19.3%) for 1600-1679 tweets, closely trailed by 1320-1359 and 1480-1519 at 17.9% each, implying a daily clip of 42-54 posts over 31 days. This clustering reflects his recent averages—often exceeding 1300 monthly amid Tesla launches, xAI updates, and political sparring—showing no signs of abatement under his X ownership, where algorithm tweaks reward volume. Differentiators include potential election-year spikes boosting upper ranges, versus quieter periods favoring mid-bins, but low odds on extremes (<1200 or >2000) underscore bettors' faith in steady, voluminous output absent major disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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