Trader sentiment on the Bank of England’s June 20 MPC decision reflects a razor-thin contest between a 25 basis points rate hike at 43% implied probability and no change at 39.5%, driven by persistent services inflation clashing with softening labor market signals. April CPI eased to 2.3% year-over-year—nearing the 2% target—but services prices held stubbornly at 5.9%, while wage growth slowed to 5.9% excluding bonuses and unemployment rose to 4.4%, tempering hawkish momentum. Governor Bailey’s recent comments emphasized data dependence amid sticky inflation dynamics, with May CPI data due June 19 poised as the pivotal swing factor that could tip the balance toward restrictive policy tightening or steady Bank Rate at 5.25%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBank of England decision in June?
Bank of England decision in June?
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 43%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 10%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 9%
$11,586 Vol.
$11,586 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
8%
25 bps decrease
10%
No change
40%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
43%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
9%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 43%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 10%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 9%
$11,586 Vol.
$11,586 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
8%
25 bps decrease
10%
No change
40%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
43%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
9%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the Bank of England’s June 20 MPC decision reflects a razor-thin contest between a 25 basis points rate hike at 43% implied probability and no change at 39.5%, driven by persistent services inflation clashing with softening labor market signals. April CPI eased to 2.3% year-over-year—nearing the 2% target—but services prices held stubbornly at 5.9%, while wage growth slowed to 5.9% excluding bonuses and unemployment rose to 4.4%, tempering hawkish momentum. Governor Bailey’s recent comments emphasized data dependence amid sticky inflation dynamics, with May CPI data due June 19 poised as the pivotal swing factor that could tip the balance toward restrictive policy tightening or steady Bank Rate at 5.25%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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