Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo, former San Jose mayor who captured the Silicon Valley-based CA-16 seat in 2024, enters the June 2 top-two primary with strong fundraising exceeding $3 million and endorsements from the California Democratic Party, bolstering trader consensus at 89% for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. The district's D+26 partisan lean, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and historical performance—where President Biden carried it by wide margins—present significant barriers for Republicans like law student Kevin Johnson, who trail in early prediction market signals for primary advancement. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, though a national Republican wave or primary upset could alter odds before ballots finalize mailing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-16 Wahlsieger
CA-16 Wahlsieger
$70,758 Vol.
$70,758 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
89%
Republikanische Partei
7%
$70,758 Vol.
$70,758 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$47,901 Vol.
89%
Republikanische Partei
$22,857 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo, former San Jose mayor who captured the Silicon Valley-based CA-16 seat in 2024, enters the June 2 top-two primary with strong fundraising exceeding $3 million and endorsements from the California Democratic Party, bolstering trader consensus at 89% for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. The district's D+26 partisan lean, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and historical performance—where President Biden carried it by wide margins—present significant barriers for Republicans like law student Kevin Johnson, who trail in early prediction market signals for primary advancement. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, though a national Republican wave or primary upset could alter odds before ballots finalize mailing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$70,758Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo, former San Jose mayor who captured the Silicon Valley-based CA-16 seat in 2024, enters the June 2 top-two primary with strong fundraising exceeding $3 million and endorsements from the California Democratic Party, bolstering trader consensus at 89% for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. The district's D+26 partisan lean, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and historical performance—where President Biden carried it by wide margins—present significant barriers for Republicans like law student Kevin Johnson, who trail in early prediction market signals for primary advancement. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, though a national Republican wave or primary upset could alter odds before ballots finalize mailing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$70,758Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo, former San Jose mayor who captured the Silicon Valley-based CA-16 seat in 2024, enters the June 2 top-two primary with strong fundraising exceeding $3 million and endorsements from the California Democratic Party, bolstering trader consensus at 89% for a Democratic general election victory on November 3. The district's D+26 partisan lean, heavy Democratic voter registration advantage, and historical performance—where President Biden carried it by wide margins—present significant barriers for Republicans like law student Kevin Johnson, who trail in early prediction market signals for primary advancement. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, though a national Republican wave or primary upset could alter odds before ballots finalize mailing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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