Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with headline CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year in June 2026 from 4.2% in May amid lower energy costs following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, has shaped trader views on the June-July-September FOMC cycle. Core inflation also moderated to 2.6%, yet the Federal Reserve's July Monetary Policy Report highlighted elevated readings and an upward shift in the market-implied federal funds rate path toward 4% by year-end. This backdrop supports the 63% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over potential hikes or mixed moves despite the 37.5% odds on three consecutive pauses. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key swing factors for rate expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOther 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 38%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.5%
$663,596 Vol.
$663,596 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
38%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Other
63%
Other 63%
Pause–Pause–Pause 38%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.5%
$663,596 Vol.
$663,596 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
38%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Other
63%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with headline CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year in June 2026 from 4.2% in May amid lower energy costs following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, has shaped trader views on the June-July-September FOMC cycle. Core inflation also moderated to 2.6%, yet the Federal Reserve's July Monetary Policy Report highlighted elevated readings and an upward shift in the market-implied federal funds rate path toward 4% by year-end. This backdrop supports the 63% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting uncertainty over potential hikes or mixed moves despite the 37.5% odds on three consecutive pauses. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key swing factors for rate expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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