Recent inflation readings and the June 2026 FOMC dot plot have created a narrow balance in trader expectations for a 2026 federal funds rate hike. With the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, roughly half of participants projected at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end while others favored a hold, reflecting uncertainty over whether resurgent price pressures tied to energy costs will prove durable. Market-implied odds near 52.5% for no hike capture this dispersion alongside moderating labor-market signals and economist forecasts for policy on hold through December. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections that could shift the median rate path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
48% Chance
$7,674,416 Vol.
$7,674,416 Vol.
8. Dez. 2026
Ja
48% Chance
$7,674,416 Vol.
$7,674,416 Vol.
8. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings and the June 2026 FOMC dot plot have created a narrow balance in trader expectations for a 2026 federal funds rate hike. With the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, roughly half of participants projected at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end while others favored a hold, reflecting uncertainty over whether resurgent price pressures tied to energy costs will prove durable. Market-implied odds near 52.5% for no hike capture this dispersion alongside moderating labor-market signals and economist forecasts for policy on hold through December. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections that could shift the median rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,674,416Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings and the June 2026 FOMC dot plot have created a narrow balance in trader expectations for a 2026 federal funds rate hike. With the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, roughly half of participants projected at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end while others favored a hold, reflecting uncertainty over whether resurgent price pressures tied to energy costs will prove durable. Market-implied odds near 52.5% for no hike capture this dispersion alongside moderating labor-market signals and economist forecasts for policy on hold through December. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections that could shift the median rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,674,416Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation readings and the June 2026 FOMC dot plot have created a narrow balance in trader expectations for a 2026 federal funds rate hike. With the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, roughly half of participants projected at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end while others favored a hold, reflecting uncertainty over whether resurgent price pressures tied to energy costs will prove durable. Market-implied odds near 52.5% for no hike capture this dispersion alongside moderating labor-market signals and economist forecasts for policy on hold through December. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision, upcoming CPI and PCE releases, and any revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections that could shift the median rate path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen