Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned ensemble models indicate persistent cloud cover and widespread showers over Beijing on August 12, driven by northward-shifting moisture from Tropical Storm Dolphin, which is suppressing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling to favor a daily maximum near 26–27°C. These conditions contrast with typical early-August climatology of 30–32°C highs, with light winds further limiting daytime warming and minimal model spread supporting the cooler outcome. Trader consensus reflects this near-term data, assigning the highest implied probabilities to 26°C and 27°C while discounting brief clearing that could allow a spike toward 28°C. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the date remain key variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Peking am 12. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Peking am 12. August?
27°C 31%
26°C 30%
28°C 16%
25°C 10%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
10%
26°C
30%
27°C
31%
28°C
16%
29°C
6%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 31%
26°C 30%
28°C 16%
25°C 10%
NEU
NEU
12. Aug. 2026
22°C or below
$413 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$297 Vol.
1%
24°C
$526 Vol.
3%
25°C
$592 Vol.
10%
26°C
$242 Vol.
30%
27°C
$1,960 Vol.
31%
28°C
$134 Vol.
16%
29°C
$344 Vol.
6%
30°C
$93 Vol.
2%
31°C
$91 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$92 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned ensemble models indicate persistent cloud cover and widespread showers over Beijing on August 12, driven by northward-shifting moisture from Tropical Storm Dolphin, which is suppressing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling to favor a daily maximum near 26–27°C. These conditions contrast with typical early-August climatology of 30–32°C highs, with light winds further limiting daytime warming and minimal model spread supporting the cooler outcome. Trader consensus reflects this near-term data, assigning the highest implied probabilities to 26°C and 27°C while discounting brief clearing that could allow a spike toward 28°C. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the date remain key variables.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$4,786Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned ensemble models indicate persistent cloud cover and widespread showers over Beijing on August 12, driven by northward-shifting moisture from Tropical Storm Dolphin, which is suppressing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling to favor a daily maximum near 26–27°C. These conditions contrast with typical early-August climatology of 30–32°C highs, with light winds further limiting daytime warming and minimal model spread supporting the cooler outcome. Trader consensus reflects this near-term data, assigning the highest implied probabilities to 26°C and 27°C while discounting brief clearing that could allow a spike toward 28°C. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the date remain key variables.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$4,786Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and aligned ensemble models indicate persistent cloud cover and widespread showers over Beijing on August 12, driven by northward-shifting moisture from Tropical Storm Dolphin, which is suppressing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling to favor a daily maximum near 26–27°C. These conditions contrast with typical early-August climatology of 30–32°C highs, with light winds further limiting daytime warming and minimal model spread supporting the cooler outcome. Trader consensus reflects this near-term data, assigning the highest implied probabilities to 26°C and 27°C while discounting brief clearing that could allow a spike toward 28°C. Updated model runs and official guidance ahead of the date remain key variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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