Recent Korea Meteorological Administration and international model consensus point to a persistent warm, humid air mass under the North Pacific High driving Busan’s August 17 daytime high near 28–29°C, with afternoon showers (60% probability) and cloud cover limiting peak heating and creating the narrow market split between those bins. Mid-August climatology typically supports highs of 29–31°C, yet variable steering patterns, tropical moisture, and timing of any convection add 1–2°C uncertainty that traders weigh against official thermometer readings at representative stations. New short-range model updates and precipitation timing refinements expected within 48 hours will likely sharpen resolution odds.