Official forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration project a daytime high near 35–36 °C for Taipei on August 17, consistent with typical late-summer subtropical conditions featuring strong solar insolation, weak steering winds, and elevated humidity that suppresses overnight cooling. Recent model runs show only modest day-to-day variability, with any afternoon thundershowers likely arriving after peak heating and therefore exerting limited downward pressure on the maximum. Historical analogs place late-August Taipei highs in the mid-30s, supporting the market’s concentration on the 34–36 °C outcomes. Updated CWA guidance and international model consensus expected later today represent the next key data points that could shift implied probabilities ahead of resolution.