Short-range ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shanghai’s peak temperature on August 16 will most likely fall between 29–31 °C, driving the market’s concentration of implied probability on those three outcomes. Mid-August climatology for the region features average highs near 31 °C under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon, with day-to-day variability governed by the position of the subtropical ridge, low-level moisture transport, and urban heat-island amplification. Recent model runs show modest cooling from increased cloud cover and scattered convection, reducing the chance of exceeding 32 °C while keeping sub-29 °C readings unlikely. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble means issued in the next 24–48 hours will provide the final inputs before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 16. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 16. August?
30°C 40%
31°C 25%
29°C 25%
32°C 6%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
25%
30°C
40%
31°C
25%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
31°C 25%
29°C 25%
32°C 6%
NEU
NEU
16. Aug. 2026
25°C or below
$324 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$48 Vol.
2%
28°C
$235 Vol.
5%
29°C
$155 Vol.
25%
30°C
$111 Vol.
40%
31°C
$399 Vol.
25%
32°C
$335 Vol.
6%
33°C
$193 Vol.
2%
34°C
$19 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$39 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shanghai’s peak temperature on August 16 will most likely fall between 29–31 °C, driving the market’s concentration of implied probability on those three outcomes. Mid-August climatology for the region features average highs near 31 °C under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon, with day-to-day variability governed by the position of the subtropical ridge, low-level moisture transport, and urban heat-island amplification. Recent model runs show modest cooling from increased cloud cover and scattered convection, reducing the chance of exceeding 32 °C while keeping sub-29 °C readings unlikely. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble means issued in the next 24–48 hours will provide the final inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$1,883Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-range ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shanghai’s peak temperature on August 16 will most likely fall between 29–31 °C, driving the market’s concentration of implied probability on those three outcomes. Mid-August climatology for the region features average highs near 31 °C under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon, with day-to-day variability governed by the position of the subtropical ridge, low-level moisture transport, and urban heat-island amplification. Recent model runs show modest cooling from increased cloud cover and scattered convection, reducing the chance of exceeding 32 °C while keeping sub-29 °C readings unlikely. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble means issued in the next 24–48 hours will provide the final inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,883Enddatum
16. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-range ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate Shanghai’s peak temperature on August 16 will most likely fall between 29–31 °C, driving the market’s concentration of implied probability on those three outcomes. Mid-August climatology for the region features average highs near 31 °C under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon, with day-to-day variability governed by the position of the subtropical ridge, low-level moisture transport, and urban heat-island amplification. Recent model runs show modest cooling from increased cloud cover and scattered convection, reducing the chance of exceeding 32 °C while keeping sub-29 °C readings unlikely. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble means issued in the next 24–48 hours will provide the final inputs before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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