Official forecasts from PAGASA place Manila's maximum temperature near 31°C on August 14 amid the weakening southwest monsoon, or habagat, which brings extensive cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that limit daytime heating. These conditions create tight clustering around 30–32°C in market-implied odds, as variable rainfall timing and intensity can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through reduced insolation while urban heat effects in Metro Manila occasionally push readings higher under brief clear spells. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and moisture flux as key variables, with updated guidance expected from the agency ahead of the date. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context but underscore how short-term monsoon fluctuations drive the narrow probability spread among leading outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Manila am 14. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Manila am 14. August?
31°C 34%
30°C 26%
32°C 21%
29°C 10%
NEU
NEU
14. Aug. 2026
25°C oder weniger
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
10%
30°C
26%
31°C
34%
32°C
21%
33°C
5%
34°C
1%
35°C oder höher
1%
31°C 34%
30°C 26%
32°C 21%
29°C 10%
NEU
NEU
14. Aug. 2026
25°C oder weniger
$343 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$21 Vol.
1%
28°C
$234 Vol.
4%
29°C
$100 Vol.
10%
30°C
$0 Vol.
26%
31°C
$0 Vol.
34%
32°C
$1 Vol.
21%
33°C
$26 Vol.
5%
34°C
$30 Vol.
1%
35°C oder höher
$37 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA place Manila's maximum temperature near 31°C on August 14 amid the weakening southwest monsoon, or habagat, which brings extensive cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that limit daytime heating. These conditions create tight clustering around 30–32°C in market-implied odds, as variable rainfall timing and intensity can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through reduced insolation while urban heat effects in Metro Manila occasionally push readings higher under brief clear spells. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and moisture flux as key variables, with updated guidance expected from the agency ahead of the date. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context but underscore how short-term monsoon fluctuations drive the narrow probability spread among leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$816Enddatum
14. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from PAGASA place Manila's maximum temperature near 31°C on August 14 amid the weakening southwest monsoon, or habagat, which brings extensive cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that limit daytime heating. These conditions create tight clustering around 30–32°C in market-implied odds, as variable rainfall timing and intensity can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through reduced insolation while urban heat effects in Metro Manila occasionally push readings higher under brief clear spells. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and moisture flux as key variables, with updated guidance expected from the agency ahead of the date. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context but underscore how short-term monsoon fluctuations drive the narrow probability spread among leading outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$816Enddatum
14. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from PAGASA place Manila's maximum temperature near 31°C on August 14 amid the weakening southwest monsoon, or habagat, which brings extensive cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity that limit daytime heating. These conditions create tight clustering around 30–32°C in market-implied odds, as variable rainfall timing and intensity can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through reduced insolation while urban heat effects in Metro Manila occasionally push readings higher under brief clear spells. Model consensus emphasizes steering patterns and moisture flux as key variables, with updated guidance expected from the agency ahead of the date. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context but underscore how short-term monsoon fluctuations drive the narrow probability spread among leading outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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