Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a London high of 14°C (34.5%) or 13°C (30.5%) for March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and UK Met Office models showing a tight spread around 13.5–14.2°C amid mild Atlantic southerly flow. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—clearer skies in deterministic runs support 14°C peaks via enhanced solar insolation, while persistent stratocumulus from a weak frontal boundary caps at 13°C, per GFS ensembles. Historical March 23 averages hover near 12°C at Heathrow (official station), but current jet stream positioning boosts thermal advection 1–2°C above norms. Final 12Z model updates today could tip odds, with traders eyeing resolution thresholds from verified observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in London am 23. März?
Höchste Temperatur in London am 23. März?
14°C 31%
13°C 30%
15°C 14%
12°C 12%
$10,336 Vol.
$10,336 Vol.
9°C oder darunter
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
12%
13°C
30%
14°C
35%
15°C
20%
16°C
7%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C oder höher
1%
14°C 31%
13°C 30%
15°C 14%
12°C 12%
$10,336 Vol.
$10,336 Vol.
9°C oder darunter
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
12%
13°C
30%
14°C
35%
15°C
20%
16°C
7%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C oder höher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a London high of 14°C (34.5%) or 13°C (30.5%) for March 23, driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and UK Met Office models showing a tight spread around 13.5–14.2°C amid mild Atlantic southerly flow. Differentiating factors include cloud cover variability—clearer skies in deterministic runs support 14°C peaks via enhanced solar insolation, while persistent stratocumulus from a weak frontal boundary caps at 13°C, per GFS ensembles. Historical March 23 averages hover near 12°C at Heathrow (official station), but current jet stream positioning boosts thermal advection 1–2°C above norms. Final 12Z model updates today could tip odds, with traders eyeing resolution thresholds from verified observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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