Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and extensive cloud cover over Metro Manila are anchoring forecasts for a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on August 29, directly supporting the market’s leading 43.5% and 29.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs project highs of 26–29°C amid 90–100% rain chances and southwesterly winds, limiting solar heating compared with clearer conditions typical of the season. Recent days have shown similar suppressed maxima around 28–30°C under analogous heavy precipitation, reinforcing trader consensus that values above 30°C remain low-probability without a sharp forecast shift. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the daily peak will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Manila am 29. August?
29°C 44%
28°C 30%
30°C 14%
27°C 7%
23°C oder weniger
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
7%
28°C
30%
29°C
44%
30°C
14%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C oder höher
1%
29°C 44%
28°C 30%
30°C 14%
27°C 7%
23°C oder weniger
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
7%
28°C
30%
29°C
44%
30°C
14%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C oder höher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 27, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and extensive cloud cover over Metro Manila are anchoring forecasts for a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on August 29, directly supporting the market’s leading 43.5% and 29.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple model runs project highs of 26–29°C amid 90–100% rain chances and southwesterly winds, limiting solar heating compared with clearer conditions typical of the season. Recent days have shown similar suppressed maxima around 28–30°C under analogous heavy precipitation, reinforcing trader consensus that values above 30°C remain low-probability without a sharp forecast shift. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings ahead of the daily peak will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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