Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 14-16°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following recent mild spring conditions. The slim edge for 15°C stems from the median model projection, bolstered by today's observed high near 15°C and minimal overnight cooling under variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences in boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating potential—GFS runs slightly warmer at 16°C in some members, while ECMWF emphasizes increased cloudiness capping at 14°C. Official IMGW observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market; watch evening model updates for shifts ahead of peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
15°C 34%
14°C 29%
16°C 27%
17°C or higher 12%
$10,756 Vol.
$10,756 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
5%
14°C
29%
15°C
34%
16°C
27%
17°C or higher
12%
15°C 34%
14°C 29%
16°C 27%
17°C or higher 12%
$10,756 Vol.
$10,756 Vol.
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
5%
14°C
29%
15°C
34%
16°C
27%
17°C or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 14-16°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following recent mild spring conditions. The slim edge for 15°C stems from the median model projection, bolstered by today's observed high near 15°C and minimal overnight cooling under variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences in boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating potential—GFS runs slightly warmer at 16°C in some members, while ECMWF emphasizes increased cloudiness capping at 14°C. Official IMGW observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market; watch evening model updates for shifts ahead of peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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