Météo-France's latest high-resolution AROME model and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS pinpoint Paris's peak temperature at 18-19°C this afternoon, under mostly sunny skies with light winds and minimal cloud interference from a slow-moving northwest front. Trader consensus reflects this tight model spread, with 18°C edging ahead at 38.5% implied probability due to conservative short-range updates emphasizing partial afternoon cloudiness capping insolation, versus 19°C at 32% on optimistic clears seen in GFS runs. Urban heat island effects and dry conditions slightly boost above April normals (~16°C), but exact peak hinges on 2-5 p.m. observations at official stations like Montsouris. New hourly data releases through evening could sharpen resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Paris am 15. April?
Höchste Temperatur in Paris am 15. April?
18°C 39%
19°C 32%
17°C 16.5%
20°C 11%
$51,331 Vol.
$51,331 Vol.
14°C oder darunter
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
16%
18°C
39%
19°C
32%
20°C
11%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C oder höher
<1%
18°C 39%
19°C 32%
17°C 16.5%
20°C 11%
$51,331 Vol.
$51,331 Vol.
14°C oder darunter
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
16%
18°C
39%
19°C
32%
20°C
11%
21°C
2%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Météo-France's latest high-resolution AROME model and ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS pinpoint Paris's peak temperature at 18-19°C this afternoon, under mostly sunny skies with light winds and minimal cloud interference from a slow-moving northwest front. Trader consensus reflects this tight model spread, with 18°C edging ahead at 38.5% implied probability due to conservative short-range updates emphasizing partial afternoon cloudiness capping insolation, versus 19°C at 32% on optimistic clears seen in GFS runs. Urban heat island effects and dry conditions slightly boost above April normals (~16°C), but exact peak hinges on 2-5 p.m. observations at official stations like Montsouris. New hourly data releases through evening could sharpen resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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