Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.5% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting maximums of 26-28°C amid typical dry-season conditions. Current observational data shows stable high-pressure systems and clear skies supporting daytime highs well above seasonal averages of 25-27°C, as confirmed by NOAA-aligned models and sites like AccuWeather forecasting around 28°C. Historical April records rarely dip below 23°C for highs, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold frontal passage or dense cloud cover reducing solar heating, though steering patterns indicate low likelihood; final airport observations will resolve the market tomorrow.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 15?
19°C or higher 99.4%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
$242,836 Vol.
$242,836 Vol.
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
99%
19°C or higher 99.4%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
$242,836 Vol.
$242,836 Vol.
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
99%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 13, 2026, 12:36 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 19°C or higher in Mexico City on April 15, with 99.5% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) projecting maximums of 26-28°C amid typical dry-season conditions. Current observational data shows stable high-pressure systems and clear skies supporting daytime highs well above seasonal averages of 25-27°C, as confirmed by NOAA-aligned models and sites like AccuWeather forecasting around 28°C. Historical April records rarely dip below 23°C for highs, reinforcing this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold frontal passage or dense cloud cover reducing solar heating, though steering patterns indicate low likelihood; final airport observations will resolve the market tomorrow.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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