Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42% implied probability to a 24°C high temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the official resolution station—slightly ahead of 23°C at 34%, amid tight forecast spread from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models projecting afternoon peaks of 23-25°C under a high-pressure ridge delivering above-normal spring warmth. Yesterday's cooler 16-20°C high shifted with clearing skies and southerly air advection overnight, boosting solar insolation today despite light northerly winds at 15 km/h potentially capping heating at the exposed airport site. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon cloud development and urban heat effects versus wind mixing; hourly AEMET observations through 5 p.m. local time will pinpoint the exact peak against April's historical average of 19°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Madrid on April 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 15?
24°C 43%
23°C 32%
25°C 21%
22°C 4.0%
$34,554 Vol.
$34,554 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
4%
23°C
32%
24°C
43%
25°C
21%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 43%
23°C 32%
25°C 21%
22°C 4.0%
$34,554 Vol.
$34,554 Vol.
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
4%
23°C
32%
24°C
43%
25°C
21%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42% implied probability to a 24°C high temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport—the official resolution station—slightly ahead of 23°C at 34%, amid tight forecast spread from AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS models projecting afternoon peaks of 23-25°C under a high-pressure ridge delivering above-normal spring warmth. Yesterday's cooler 16-20°C high shifted with clearing skies and southerly air advection overnight, boosting solar insolation today despite light northerly winds at 15 km/h potentially capping heating at the exposed airport site. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon cloud development and urban heat effects versus wind mixing; hourly AEMET observations through 5 p.m. local time will pinpoint the exact peak against April's historical average of 19°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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