Traders assign a 97.9% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be in jail before 2027, reflecting the absence of any criminal charges, investigations, or credible legal exposure for the Federal Reserve Chair as of August 2026. Powell faces no pending indictments, regulatory actions, or congressional findings of misconduct that could trigger prosecution, while the legal threshold for incarcerating a sitting or former central bank official remains extraordinarily high, requiring due process and evidence of felonies. Institutional norms, term protections under the Federal Reserve Act, and historical precedent further anchor the consensus. Tail-risk scenarios include an unforeseen political reversal or newly disclosed financial impropriety leading to rapid charges, though even these would face substantial procedural delays before any incarceration could occur.