Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Jinan of 18–21°C on September 18 under partly cloudy skies and light winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around mid-range outcomes. Radiative cooling rates will depend on cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture, with urban heat-island effects in the city center potentially elevating the official minimum relative to rural stations. The near-even split between the 12°C-or-below and 22°C-or-higher tails reflects residual model spread in exact minimum timing and local advection, though climatological September baselines and the absence of cold-air intrusions make extremes unlikely. Updated numerical guidance tonight will likely narrow resolution criteria.