New York’s 12th congressional district, anchored in Manhattan, has long been one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, with the party routinely capturing 75–80% of the general-election vote in recent cycles. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the June 23 Democratic primary, but the winner of that contest faces only nominal Republican and independent opposition in November. Recent polling and candidate filings show a competitive primary among Democrats Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, and others, yet no Republican has mounted a credible challenge. Trader consensus therefore assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory, reflecting the district’s partisan composition, turnout patterns, and historical margins. A realistic shift in odds would require an extraordinary post-primary development such as a felony conviction or withdrawal by the Democratic nominee that fundamentally alters voter behavior in the final months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNY-12 Wahlsieger
NY-12 Wahlsieger
$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
95%
Republikanische Partei
5%
$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$16,248 Vol.
95%
Republikanische Partei
$3,963 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, anchored in Manhattan, has long been one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, with the party routinely capturing 75–80% of the general-election vote in recent cycles. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the June 23 Democratic primary, but the winner of that contest faces only nominal Republican and independent opposition in November. Recent polling and candidate filings show a competitive primary among Democrats Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, and others, yet no Republican has mounted a credible challenge. Trader consensus therefore assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory, reflecting the district’s partisan composition, turnout patterns, and historical margins. A realistic shift in odds would require an extraordinary post-primary development such as a felony conviction or withdrawal by the Democratic nominee that fundamentally alters voter behavior in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$20,211Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, anchored in Manhattan, has long been one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, with the party routinely capturing 75–80% of the general-election vote in recent cycles. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the June 23 Democratic primary, but the winner of that contest faces only nominal Republican and independent opposition in November. Recent polling and candidate filings show a competitive primary among Democrats Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, and others, yet no Republican has mounted a credible challenge. Trader consensus therefore assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory, reflecting the district’s partisan composition, turnout patterns, and historical margins. A realistic shift in odds would require an extraordinary post-primary development such as a felony conviction or withdrawal by the Democratic nominee that fundamentally alters voter behavior in the final months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$20,211Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district, anchored in Manhattan, has long been one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, with the party routinely capturing 75–80% of the general-election vote in recent cycles. Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the June 23 Democratic primary, but the winner of that contest faces only nominal Republican and independent opposition in November. Recent polling and candidate filings show a competitive primary among Democrats Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, and others, yet no Republican has mounted a credible challenge. Trader consensus therefore assigns overwhelming probability to a Democratic victory, reflecting the district’s partisan composition, turnout patterns, and historical margins. A realistic shift in odds would require an extraordinary post-primary development such as a felony conviction or withdrawal by the Democratic nominee that fundamentally alters voter behavior in the final months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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