Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle’s strong performance in the May 19, 2026, primary, where she secured roughly 78 percent of the vote against two challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for her general-election victory in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District. The race features a rematch against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who won her primary with approximately 87 percent. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, consistent with the district’s established partisan lean and Hoyle’s prior margin. With the November 3 general election still months away and no major intervening events or shifts in outside spending reported, the 88 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee reflects the structural advantages of incumbency and voter composition in this contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOR-04 Wahlsieger
OR-04 Wahlsieger
$11,774 Vol.
$11,774 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
88%
Republikanische Partei
7%
$11,774 Vol.
$11,774 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$9,149 Vol.
88%
Republikanische Partei
$2,626 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle’s strong performance in the May 19, 2026, primary, where she secured roughly 78 percent of the vote against two challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for her general-election victory in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District. The race features a rematch against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who won her primary with approximately 87 percent. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, consistent with the district’s established partisan lean and Hoyle’s prior margin. With the November 3 general election still months away and no major intervening events or shifts in outside spending reported, the 88 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee reflects the structural advantages of incumbency and voter composition in this contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$11,774Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle’s strong performance in the May 19, 2026, primary, where she secured roughly 78 percent of the vote against two challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for her general-election victory in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District. The race features a rematch against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who won her primary with approximately 87 percent. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, consistent with the district’s established partisan lean and Hoyle’s prior margin. With the November 3 general election still months away and no major intervening events or shifts in outside spending reported, the 88 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee reflects the structural advantages of incumbency and voter composition in this contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,774Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle’s strong performance in the May 19, 2026, primary, where she secured roughly 78 percent of the vote against two challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for her general-election victory in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District. The race features a rematch against Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who won her primary with approximately 87 percent. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, consistent with the district’s established partisan lean and Hoyle’s prior margin. With the November 3 general election still months away and no major intervening events or shifts in outside spending reported, the 88 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee reflects the structural advantages of incumbency and voter composition in this contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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