The September 2026 FOMC meeting, which delivered a unanimous 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, anchors the 90.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections raised the median year-end 2026 federal funds rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid core PCE inflation at 3.4% and resilient growth. Hawkish communications from Chair Warsh, citing persistently elevated inflation and the need for timely progress toward the 2% goal, have reinforced trader consensus reflected in CME futures pricing near 88%. Key upcoming catalysts include the October and December meetings, where fresh labor and inflation data could still shift the path if readings soften materially or geopolitical pressures ease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
91% probabilidad
$151,447 Vol.
$151,447 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sí
91% probabilidad
$151,447 Vol.
$151,447 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 2026 FOMC meeting, which delivered a unanimous 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, anchors the 90.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections raised the median year-end 2026 federal funds rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid core PCE inflation at 3.4% and resilient growth. Hawkish communications from Chair Warsh, citing persistently elevated inflation and the need for timely progress toward the 2% goal, have reinforced trader consensus reflected in CME futures pricing near 88%. Key upcoming catalysts include the October and December meetings, where fresh labor and inflation data could still shift the path if readings soften materially or geopolitical pressures ease.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$151,447Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The September 2026 FOMC meeting, which delivered a unanimous 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, anchors the 90.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections raised the median year-end 2026 federal funds rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid core PCE inflation at 3.4% and resilient growth. Hawkish communications from Chair Warsh, citing persistently elevated inflation and the need for timely progress toward the 2% goal, have reinforced trader consensus reflected in CME futures pricing near 88%. Key upcoming catalysts include the October and December meetings, where fresh labor and inflation data could still shift the path if readings soften materially or geopolitical pressures ease.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...The September 2026 FOMC meeting, which delivered a unanimous 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, anchors the 90.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections raised the median year-end 2026 federal funds rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid core PCE inflation at 3.4% and resilient growth. Hawkish communications from Chair Warsh, citing persistently elevated inflation and the need for timely progress toward the 2% goal, have reinforced trader consensus reflected in CME futures pricing near 88%. Key upcoming catalysts include the October and December meetings, where fresh labor and inflation data could still shift the path if readings soften materially or geopolitical pressures ease.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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