Arizona's 4th Congressional District maintains a D+4 partisan voter index and delivered a Democratic margin of roughly seven points in the most recent cycle, anchoring trader consensus around an 86% probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton faces a July 21 primary challenge from progressive organizer Kai Newkirk, while Republicans are consolidating behind candidates including Zuhdi Jasser ahead of the same primary date. Nonpartisan rating outlets classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's composition covering portions of Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate dynamics have emerged in recent weeks to alter these fundamentals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAZ-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AZ-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$16,929 Vol.
$16,929 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
86%
Partido Republicano
13%
$16,929 Vol.
$16,929 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,085 Vol.
86%
Partido Republicano
$2,843 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 4th Congressional District maintains a D+4 partisan voter index and delivered a Democratic margin of roughly seven points in the most recent cycle, anchoring trader consensus around an 86% probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton faces a July 21 primary challenge from progressive organizer Kai Newkirk, while Republicans are consolidating behind candidates including Zuhdi Jasser ahead of the same primary date. Nonpartisan rating outlets classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's composition covering portions of Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate dynamics have emerged in recent weeks to alter these fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$16,929Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 4th Congressional District maintains a D+4 partisan voter index and delivered a Democratic margin of roughly seven points in the most recent cycle, anchoring trader consensus around an 86% probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton faces a July 21 primary challenge from progressive organizer Kai Newkirk, while Republicans are consolidating behind candidates including Zuhdi Jasser ahead of the same primary date. Nonpartisan rating outlets classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's composition covering portions of Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate dynamics have emerged in recent weeks to alter these fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$16,929Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 4th Congressional District maintains a D+4 partisan voter index and delivered a Democratic margin of roughly seven points in the most recent cycle, anchoring trader consensus around an 86% probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton faces a July 21 primary challenge from progressive organizer Kai Newkirk, while Republicans are consolidating behind candidates including Zuhdi Jasser ahead of the same primary date. Nonpartisan rating outlets classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's composition covering portions of Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. No major shifts in polling, fundraising, or candidate dynamics have emerged in recent weeks to alter these fundamentals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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