Arizona's 6th congressional district remains a toss-up heading into the July 21 primaries and November general election, with the even Partisan Voter Index and 2024 results showing the narrowest of margins for the Republican incumbent. Recent polls, including a March survey sponsored by a conservative group, have placed Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza narrowly ahead of Juan Ciscomani, while fundraising reports indicate Mendoza outraised the incumbent in key quarters. These factors, combined with the district's battleground status and typical midterm dynamics, underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 56 percent implied probability over the Republican Party.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAZ-06 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AZ-06 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
16%
Partido Demócrata
50%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$969 Vol.
16%
Partido Demócrata
$490 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 6th congressional district remains a toss-up heading into the July 21 primaries and November general election, with the even Partisan Voter Index and 2024 results showing the narrowest of margins for the Republican incumbent. Recent polls, including a March survey sponsored by a conservative group, have placed Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza narrowly ahead of Juan Ciscomani, while fundraising reports indicate Mendoza outraised the incumbent in key quarters. These factors, combined with the district's battleground status and typical midterm dynamics, underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 56 percent implied probability over the Republican Party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volumen
$1,459Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 6th congressional district remains a toss-up heading into the July 21 primaries and November general election, with the even Partisan Voter Index and 2024 results showing the narrowest of margins for the Republican incumbent. Recent polls, including a March survey sponsored by a conservative group, have placed Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza narrowly ahead of Juan Ciscomani, while fundraising reports indicate Mendoza outraised the incumbent in key quarters. These factors, combined with the district's battleground status and typical midterm dynamics, underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 56 percent implied probability over the Republican Party.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$1,459Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 6th congressional district remains a toss-up heading into the July 21 primaries and November general election, with the even Partisan Voter Index and 2024 results showing the narrowest of margins for the Republican incumbent. Recent polls, including a March survey sponsored by a conservative group, have placed Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza narrowly ahead of Juan Ciscomani, while fundraising reports indicate Mendoza outraised the incumbent in key quarters. These factors, combined with the district's battleground status and typical midterm dynamics, underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic Party at 56 percent implied probability over the Republican Party.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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