Latest National Weather Service guidance for Austin pegs April 4 highs near 76°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), aligning with trader consensus favoring 76-77°F (27.5% implied probability) amid a tight race with 72-73°F (21%) and 74-75°F (20.5%). Persistent mid- and high-level clouds from a lingering shortwave trough over the Plains, combined with light southerly winds around 5-10 mph, are capping boundary layer heating and differentiating outcomes—full clearing could push toward 78°F+, while lingering showers favor lower bins. Ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF reflect this spread, cooler than early April normals (~77°F) due to recent frontal passage on April 2-3 bringing humidity and instability. Morning soundings and 12z model runs tomorrow will clarify peak afternoon potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on April 4?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 4?
76-77°F 28%
74-75°F 21%
72-73°F 16%
78-79°F 15%
$13,485 Vol.
$13,485 Vol.
4 abr 2026
71°F or below
11%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
28%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
1%
76-77°F 28%
74-75°F 21%
72-73°F 16%
78-79°F 15%
$13,485 Vol.
$13,485 Vol.
4 abr 2026
71°F or below
$313 Vol.
11%
72-73°F
$489 Vol.
16%
74-75°F
$700 Vol.
21%
76-77°F
$571 Vol.
28%
78-79°F
$315 Vol.
15%
80-81°F
$468 Vol.
10%
82-83°F
$585 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$2,587 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$2,918 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$2,101 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$2,438 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance for Austin pegs April 4 highs near 76°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), aligning with trader consensus favoring 76-77°F (27.5% implied probability) amid a tight race with 72-73°F (21%) and 74-75°F (20.5%). Persistent mid- and high-level clouds from a lingering shortwave trough over the Plains, combined with light southerly winds around 5-10 mph, are capping boundary layer heating and differentiating outcomes—full clearing could push toward 78°F+, while lingering showers favor lower bins. Ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF reflect this spread, cooler than early April normals (~77°F) due to recent frontal passage on April 2-3 bringing humidity and instability. Morning soundings and 12z model runs tomorrow will clarify peak afternoon potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volumen
$13,485Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance for Austin pegs April 4 highs near 76°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), aligning with trader consensus favoring 76-77°F (27.5% implied probability) amid a tight race with 72-73°F (21%) and 74-75°F (20.5%). Persistent mid- and high-level clouds from a lingering shortwave trough over the Plains, combined with light southerly winds around 5-10 mph, are capping boundary layer heating and differentiating outcomes—full clearing could push toward 78°F+, while lingering showers favor lower bins. Ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF reflect this spread, cooler than early April normals (~77°F) due to recent frontal passage on April 2-3 bringing humidity and instability. Morning soundings and 12z model runs tomorrow will clarify peak afternoon potential.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,485Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance for Austin pegs April 4 highs near 76°F at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS), aligning with trader consensus favoring 76-77°F (27.5% implied probability) amid a tight race with 72-73°F (21%) and 74-75°F (20.5%). Persistent mid- and high-level clouds from a lingering shortwave trough over the Plains, combined with light southerly winds around 5-10 mph, are capping boundary layer heating and differentiating outcomes—full clearing could push toward 78°F+, while lingering showers favor lower bins. Ensemble means from GFS and ECMWF reflect this spread, cooler than early April normals (~77°F) due to recent frontal passage on April 2-3 bringing humidity and instability. Morning soundings and 12z model runs tomorrow will clarify peak afternoon potential.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes