Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS point to a tight cluster of highs around 15-17°C for Tokyo on March 22, driving the near-even odds among these outcomes, with 16°C edging ahead at 26.5% implied probability. This reflects mild southerly flow from warming Sea of Japan waters and weak frontal passage, tempered by partial cloud cover uncertainty that could shave 1-2°C off peaks. Historical March 22 averages hover near 14°C, but urban heat island effects and recent model updates showing reduced cold air intrusion have lifted sentiment above baseline, differentiating slimmer chances for 18°C+ amid divergent short-range runs. Traders eye afternoon JMA refinements for resolution cues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 22?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 22?
16°C 27%
15°C 24%
17°C 24%
18°C 17%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
24%
16°C
27%
17°C
24%
18°C
17%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
1%
16°C 27%
15°C 24%
17°C 24%
18°C 17%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
24%
16°C
27%
17°C
24%
18°C
17%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS point to a tight cluster of highs around 15-17°C for Tokyo on March 22, driving the near-even odds among these outcomes, with 16°C edging ahead at 26.5% implied probability. This reflects mild southerly flow from warming Sea of Japan waters and weak frontal passage, tempered by partial cloud cover uncertainty that could shave 1-2°C off peaks. Historical March 22 averages hover near 14°C, but urban heat island effects and recent model updates showing reduced cold air intrusion have lifted sentiment above baseline, differentiating slimmer chances for 18°C+ amid divergent short-range runs. Traders eye afternoon JMA refinements for resolution cues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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