**A southerly to southwesterly flow over New Zealand is delivering cooler polar maritime air and scattered showers to Wellington on August 18, 2026, keeping daytime maxima below the long-term August climatological average of ~12°C.** Official MetService guidance and multiple model outputs currently point to a high of 10–11°C at Wellington International Airport, the resolution station, with light showers mainly in the morning and strong southerlies. Recent days under comparable conditions have recorded 10–11°C highs, reinforcing trader focus on these outcomes. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA describe near-average or slightly below-average winter temperatures for the region amid variable flows, with no strong warming signals or subtropical intrusions expected to lift readings into the mid-teens. Ensemble consensus across global models shows limited spread around the 10–12°C range, producing the observed market concentration on the 11°C (51.5%) and 12°C (24.5%) contracts while assigning lower but non-negligible probability to 10°C. Updated model runs and any late southerly strengthening remain the key near-term variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 18 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 18 de agosto?
11°C 53%
12°C 25%
10°C 16%
9°C 3%
NUEVO
$20,737 Vol.
NUEVO
$20,737 Vol.
18 ago 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
3%
10°C
16%
11°C
53%
12°C
25%
13°C
3%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 53%
12°C 25%
10°C 16%
9°C 3%
NUEVO
$20,737 Vol.
NUEVO
$20,737 Vol.
18 ago 2026
6°C or below
$314 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$845 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,030 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$973 Vol.
3%
10°C
$2,760 Vol.
16%
11°C
$2,841 Vol.
53%
12°C
$6,816 Vol.
25%
13°C
$1,711 Vol.
3%
14°C
$1,120 Vol.
1%
15°C
$828 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$1,498 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A southerly to southwesterly flow over New Zealand is delivering cooler polar maritime air and scattered showers to Wellington on August 18, 2026, keeping daytime maxima below the long-term August climatological average of ~12°C.** Official MetService guidance and multiple model outputs currently point to a high of 10–11°C at Wellington International Airport, the resolution station, with light showers mainly in the morning and strong southerlies. Recent days under comparable conditions have recorded 10–11°C highs, reinforcing trader focus on these outcomes.
Seasonal outlooks from NIWA describe near-average or slightly below-average winter temperatures for the region amid variable flows, with no strong warming signals or subtropical intrusions expected to lift readings into the mid-teens. Ensemble consensus across global models shows limited spread around the 10–12°C range, producing the observed market concentration on the 11°C (51.5%) and 12°C (24.5%) contracts while assigning lower but non-negligible probability to 10°C. Updated model runs and any late southerly strengthening remain the key near-term variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$20,737Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A southerly to southwesterly flow over New Zealand is delivering cooler polar maritime air and scattered showers to Wellington on August 18, 2026, keeping daytime maxima below the long-term August climatological average of ~12°C.** Official MetService guidance and multiple model outputs currently point to a high of 10–11°C at Wellington International Airport, the resolution station, with light showers mainly in the morning and strong southerlies. Recent days under comparable conditions have recorded 10–11°C highs, reinforcing trader focus on these outcomes.
Seasonal outlooks from NIWA describe near-average or slightly below-average winter temperatures for the region amid variable flows, with no strong warming signals or subtropical intrusions expected to lift readings into the mid-teens. Ensemble consensus across global models shows limited spread around the 10–12°C range, producing the observed market concentration on the 11°C (51.5%) and 12°C (24.5%) contracts while assigning lower but non-negligible probability to 10°C. Updated model runs and any late southerly strengthening remain the key near-term variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$20,737Fecha de finalización
18 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A southerly to southwesterly flow over New Zealand is delivering cooler polar maritime air and scattered showers to Wellington on August 18, 2026, keeping daytime maxima below the long-term August climatological average of ~12°C.** Official MetService guidance and multiple model outputs currently point to a high of 10–11°C at Wellington International Airport, the resolution station, with light showers mainly in the morning and strong southerlies. Recent days under comparable conditions have recorded 10–11°C highs, reinforcing trader focus on these outcomes. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA describe near-average or slightly below-average winter temperatures for the region amid variable flows, with no strong warming signals or subtropical intrusions expected to lift readings into the mid-teens. Ensemble consensus across global models shows limited spread around the 10–12°C range, producing the observed market concentration on the 11°C (51.5%) and 12°C (24.5%) contracts while assigning lower but non-negligible probability to 10°C. Updated model runs and any late southerly strengthening remain the key near-term variables that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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