Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams' comments on potential further tightening, combined with elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.54% as of September 2, 2026—up over 80 basis points year-over-year. Market-implied odds for a September FOMC rate hike exceed 60%, reflecting trader concerns over entrenched inflation and a resilient economy fueled by AI investments. Fiscal pressures from federal debt surpassing $40 trillion and heavy corporate issuance for data centers have lifted the term premium, limiting downside in yields. Key upcoming catalysts include September inflation data, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC meeting, which could shift the rate path and influence how far yields might compress before year-end 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
30 dic 2026
Por debajo del 4.50%
50%
Por debajo de 4.45%
50%
Por debajo del 4,40%
50%
Por debajo del 4,35%
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Por debajo de 4,30%
50%
Por debajo del 4,25%
50%
Por debajo del 4,20%
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Por debajo del 4,10%
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Por debajo del 4,00%
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$0.00 Vol.
Por debajo del 4.50%
$0 Vol.
50%
Por debajo de 4.45%
$0 Vol.
50%
Por debajo del 4,40%
$0 Vol.
50%
Por debajo del 4,35%
$0 Vol.
50%
Por debajo de 4,30%
$0 Vol.
50%
Por debajo del 4,25%
$0 Vol.
50%
Por debajo del 4,20%
$0 Vol.
50%
Por debajo del 4,10%
$0 Vol.
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Por debajo del 4,00%
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams' comments on potential further tightening, combined with elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.54% as of September 2, 2026—up over 80 basis points year-over-year. Market-implied odds for a September FOMC rate hike exceed 60%, reflecting trader concerns over entrenched inflation and a resilient economy fueled by AI investments. Fiscal pressures from federal debt surpassing $40 trillion and heavy corporate issuance for data centers have lifted the term premium, limiting downside in yields. Key upcoming catalysts include September inflation data, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC meeting, which could shift the rate path and influence how far yields might compress before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams' comments on potential further tightening, combined with elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.54% as of September 2, 2026—up over 80 basis points year-over-year. Market-implied odds for a September FOMC rate hike exceed 60%, reflecting trader concerns over entrenched inflation and a resilient economy fueled by AI investments. Fiscal pressures from federal debt surpassing $40 trillion and heavy corporate issuance for data centers have lifted the term premium, limiting downside in yields. Key upcoming catalysts include September inflation data, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC meeting, which could shift the rate path and influence how far yields might compress before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams' comments on potential further tightening, combined with elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.54% as of September 2, 2026—up over 80 basis points year-over-year. Market-implied odds for a September FOMC rate hike exceed 60%, reflecting trader concerns over entrenched inflation and a resilient economy fueled by AI investments. Fiscal pressures from federal debt surpassing $40 trillion and heavy corporate issuance for data centers have lifted the term premium, limiting downside in yields. Key upcoming catalysts include September inflation data, nonfarm payrolls, and the next FOMC meeting, which could shift the rate path and influence how far yields might compress before year-end 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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