The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.27%, driven higher by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premia reflecting heavy Treasury and corporate supply, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Fiscal concerns over deficits exceeding $40 trillion and geopolitical oil-price risks have further supported real yields. Markets price a roughly 65-70% chance of a September FOMC rate hike, with the August employment report, CPI release, and September 15-16 policy decision as immediate catalysts that could extend the recent climb. Traders weigh these data-dependent factors against the potential for any moderation in growth or inflation expectations to cap further upside before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
30 dic 2026
6,00%
50%
5,80%
50%
5,70%
50%
5,65%
50%
5,60%
50%
5,55%
50%
5,50%
50%
5,45%
50%
5,40%
51%
$0.00 Vol.
6,00%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,80%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,70%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,65%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,60%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,55%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,50%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,45%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,40%
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.27%, driven higher by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premia reflecting heavy Treasury and corporate supply, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Fiscal concerns over deficits exceeding $40 trillion and geopolitical oil-price risks have further supported real yields. Markets price a roughly 65-70% chance of a September FOMC rate hike, with the August employment report, CPI release, and September 15-16 policy decision as immediate catalysts that could extend the recent climb. Traders weigh these data-dependent factors against the potential for any moderation in growth or inflation expectations to cap further upside before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.27%, driven higher by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premia reflecting heavy Treasury and corporate supply, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Fiscal concerns over deficits exceeding $40 trillion and geopolitical oil-price risks have further supported real yields. Markets price a roughly 65-70% chance of a September FOMC rate hike, with the August employment report, CPI release, and September 15-16 policy decision as immediate catalysts that could extend the recent climb. Traders weigh these data-dependent factors against the potential for any moderation in growth or inflation expectations to cap further upside before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 30-year Treasury yield recently traded near 5.27%, driven higher by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premia reflecting heavy Treasury and corporate supply, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability. Fiscal concerns over deficits exceeding $40 trillion and geopolitical oil-price risks have further supported real yields. Markets price a roughly 65-70% chance of a September FOMC rate hike, with the August employment report, CPI release, and September 15-16 policy decision as immediate catalysts that could extend the recent climb. Traders weigh these data-dependent factors against the potential for any moderation in growth or inflation expectations to cap further upside before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes