The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.78% as of early September 2026, touching an intraday peak of 4.818%—the highest since November 2023—amid surging oil prices near $90–95 per barrel, renewed Middle East tensions, and persistent inflation concerns. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and Governor Michael Barr, who flagged a potential September rate hike if price pressures do not ease, have boosted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point tightening at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to roughly 65%. Traders are closely watching the September 4 nonfarm payrolls report, September 10–11 PPI and CPI prints, and fiscal deficit dynamics for further direction, as these releases will shape expectations for the policy path and real yields in the weeks ahead.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
30 sep 2026
5,10%
6%
5,05%
50%
5,00%
50%
4,97%
50%
4,94%
50%
4,91%
50%
4.88%
50%
4,85%
50%
4,82%
50%
$0.00 Vol.
5,10%
$0 Vol.
6%
5,05%
$0 Vol.
50%
5,00%
$0 Vol.
50%
4,97%
$0 Vol.
50%
4,94%
$0 Vol.
50%
4,91%
$0 Vol.
50%
4.88%
$0 Vol.
50%
4,85%
$0 Vol.
50%
4,82%
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.78% as of early September 2026, touching an intraday peak of 4.818%—the highest since November 2023—amid surging oil prices near $90–95 per barrel, renewed Middle East tensions, and persistent inflation concerns. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and Governor Michael Barr, who flagged a potential September rate hike if price pressures do not ease, have boosted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point tightening at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to roughly 65%. Traders are closely watching the September 4 nonfarm payrolls report, September 10–11 PPI and CPI prints, and fiscal deficit dynamics for further direction, as these releases will shape expectations for the policy path and real yields in the weeks ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.78% as of early September 2026, touching an intraday peak of 4.818%—the highest since November 2023—amid surging oil prices near $90–95 per barrel, renewed Middle East tensions, and persistent inflation concerns. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and Governor Michael Barr, who flagged a potential September rate hike if price pressures do not ease, have boosted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point tightening at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to roughly 65%. Traders are closely watching the September 4 nonfarm payrolls report, September 10–11 PPI and CPI prints, and fiscal deficit dynamics for further direction, as these releases will shape expectations for the policy path and real yields in the weeks ahead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.78% as of early September 2026, touching an intraday peak of 4.818%—the highest since November 2023—amid surging oil prices near $90–95 per barrel, renewed Middle East tensions, and persistent inflation concerns. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole and Governor Michael Barr, who flagged a potential September rate hike if price pressures do not ease, have boosted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point tightening at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting to roughly 65%. Traders are closely watching the September 4 nonfarm payrolls report, September 10–11 PPI and CPI prints, and fiscal deficit dynamics for further direction, as these releases will shape expectations for the policy path and real yields in the weeks ahead.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes