A fragile two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 7, holds tenuously in the US-Israel-Iran conflict that erupted February 28 with coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites. Recent Islamabad talks between US Vice President Vance and Iranian officials ended without agreement on April 12, amid ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz—prompting Tehran threats and Chinese-Iranian tanker challenges—and continued Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. Direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations began April 14 in Washington, but US troop and warship deployments signal escalation risks as the truce nears expiration around April 21, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus renewed military action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
$41,920,155 Vol.
30 jun 2026
7 de abril
87%
15 de abril
86%
30 de abril
90%
15 de mayo
92%
30 de junio
96%
31 de diciembre
97%
$41,920,155 Vol.
7 de abril
$15,116,156 Vol.
87%
15 de abril
$8,915,347 Vol.
86%
30 de abril
$3,818,201 Vol.
90%
15 de mayo
$3,403,709 Vol.
92%
30 de junio
$2,824,074 Vol.
96%
31 de diciembre
$2,680,318 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 7, holds tenuously in the US-Israel-Iran conflict that erupted February 28 with coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites. Recent Islamabad talks between US Vice President Vance and Iranian officials ended without agreement on April 12, amid ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz—prompting Tehran threats and Chinese-Iranian tanker challenges—and continued Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. Direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations began April 14 in Washington, but US troop and warship deployments signal escalation risks as the truce nears expiration around April 21, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus renewed military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercado abierto: Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volumen
$41,920,155Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 7, holds tenuously in the US-Israel-Iran conflict that erupted February 28 with coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites. Recent Islamabad talks between US Vice President Vance and Iranian officials ended without agreement on April 12, amid ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz—prompting Tehran threats and Chinese-Iranian tanker challenges—and continued Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. Direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations began April 14 in Washington, but US troop and warship deployments signal escalation risks as the truce nears expiration around April 21, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus renewed military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volumen
$41,920,155Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 7, holds tenuously in the US-Israel-Iran conflict that erupted February 28 with coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites. Recent Islamabad talks between US Vice President Vance and Iranian officials ended without agreement on April 12, amid ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz—prompting Tehran threats and Chinese-Iranian tanker challenges—and continued Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. Direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations began April 14 in Washington, but US troop and warship deployments signal escalation risks as the truce nears expiration around April 21, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus renewed military action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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